Market is closed
2011-04-22
The market is closed today in observance of Good Friday. There will be no stock analysis posting.
Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) ($POT) Target: $72 Confident Investor Rating: Good
2011-04-21
Several times a year, a Confident Investor must reevaluate the companies in the portfolio. Keeping your money in a stock that no longer qualifies as a “Good” company can end up hurting your investment performance a great deal. Also, there are a lot of Good Companies so losing the worst of the best is not going to impact the ability to have a balanced portfolio. Over the coming days, this site will evaluate each stock on the Watch List.
| Company name | Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) |
| Stock ticker | POT |
| Live stock price | [stckqut]POT[/stckqut] |
| P/E compared to competitors | Good |
| Employee productivity | Good |
| Sales growth | Good |
| EPS growth | Good |
| P/E growth | Poor |
| EBIT growth | Good |
| Confident Investor Rating | Good |
| Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) | $85.19 |
| Target stock price (averages with growth) | $101.23 |
| Target stock price (averages with no growth) | $65.64 |
| Target stock price (manual assumptions) | $75.01 |
The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=pot
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (PCS) is an integrated fertilizer and related industrial and feed products company. The Company owns and operates five potash mines in Saskatchewan and one in New Brunswick. It also holds mineral rights t the Esterhazy mine where potash is produced under a mining and processing agreement with a third party. Its phosphate operations include the manufacture and sale of solid and liquid phosphate fertilizers; animal feed supplements and industrial acid, which is used in food products and industrial processes. It has a phosphate mine and two mineral processing plant complexes in northern Florida and six phosphates feed plants in the United States. Its nitrogen operations involve the production of nitrogen fertilizers and nitrogen feed and industrial products, including ammonia, urea, nitrogen solutions, ammonium nitrate and nitric acid. It has nitrogen facilities in Georgia, Louisiana, Ohio and Trinidad.
Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.
PNC Financial Services ($PNC) Target: $75 Confident Investor Rating: Good
2011-04-20
Several times a year, a Confident Investor must reevaluate the companies in the portfolio. Keeping your money in a stock that no longer qualifies as a “Good” company can end up hurting your investment performance a great deal. Also, there are a lot of Good Companies so losing the worst of the best is not going to impact the ability to have a balanced portfolio. Over the coming days, this site will evaluate each stock on the Watch List.
| Company name | PNC Financial Services |
| Stock ticker | PNC |
| Live stock price | [stckqut]PNC[/stckqut] |
| P/E compared to competitors | Good |
| Employee productivity | Fair |
| Sales growth | Good |
| EPS growth | Good |
| P/E growth | Poor |
| EBIT growth | Good |
| Confident Investor Rating | Good |
| Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) | $94.28 |
| Target stock price (averages with growth) | $107.97 |
| Target stock price (averages with no growth) | $84.38 |
| Target stock price (manual assumptions) | $52.36 |
The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=pnc
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC) is a diversified financial services company in the United States. PNC is engaged in retail banking, corporate and institutional banking, asset management, and residential mortgage banking, providing many of its products and services nationally and others in its primary geographic markets located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Michigan, Maryland, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Florida, Virginia, Missouri, Delaware, Washington, D.C., and Wisconsin. The Company also provides certain products and services internationally. Retail Banking provides deposit, lending, brokerage, trust, investment management, and cash management services. Corporate and Institutional Banking provides lending, treasury management, and capital markets-related products and services. Asset Management Group includes personal wealth management for high net worth and ultra high net worth clients and institutional asset management. BlackRock is an investment management firm.
Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.
Peet’s Coffee & Tea, Inc. ($PEET) Target: $53 Confident Investor Rating: Fair
2011-04-19
Several times a year, a Confident Investor must reevaluate the companies in the portfolio. Keeping your money in a stock that no longer qualifies as a “Good” company can end up hurting your investment performance a great deal. Also, there are a lot of Good Companies so losing the worst of the best is not going to impact the ability to have a balanced portfolio. Over the coming days, this site will evaluate each stock on the Watch List.
| Company name | Peet’s Coffee & Tea, Inc. |
| Stock ticker | PEET |
| Live stock price | [stckqut]PEET[/stckqut] |
| P/E compared to competitors | Fair |
| Employee productivity | Fair |
| Sales growth | Fair |
| EPS growth | Good |
| P/E growth | Poor |
| EBIT growth | Good |
| Confident Investor Rating | Fair |
| Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) | $51.77 |
| Target stock price (averages with growth) | $71.08 |
| Target stock price (averages with no growth) | $56.03 |
| Target stock price (manual assumptions) | $57.55 |
The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=peet
Peet’s Coffee & Tea, Inc. (Peet’s) is a specialty coffee roaster and marketer of fresh roasted whole bean coffee and tea. The Company sells its coffee through multiple channels of distribution, including grocery stores, home delivery, office, restaurant and food service accounts and Company-owned and operated stores in six states. The Company operates its business through two segments: retail and specialty sales. As of January 3, 2010, the Company operated 192 retail stores in six states, through which the Company sells whole bean coffee, beverages and pastries, tea and other related items. Its stores are designed to facilitate the sale of fresh whole bean coffee and to encourage customer trial of its coffee through coffee beverages. Each store has a staff person at the bean counter to take orders and assist customers with questions on coffee origins and on home brewing.
Confident Investor comments: I have reviewed PEET 3 times to date on this site. The first time, I rated the company as Good and then it fell to Fair but I left it on my Watch List. I can no longer leave it on the Watch List as a Fair Company. At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.
Be ready to jump from the trend
2011-04-19
I read a large number of investor blogs. It is one of the ways that I find companies to analyze to see if they fit my performance criteria. One of my favorites is Michael K. Dawson. His blog, The Trend Rida, is very well done and it is an enjoyable read. He gives advice, admits mistakes, and shows enough emotion in his writing that the articles are always interesting even when I disagree with his comments.
One of the key tenants that he and I agree on is that when the ride is over, be ready to get off. While Dawson tries to find the hottest stocks on the market he usually understands when that stock is no longer hot and it is time to move on. This is very important as I know too many investors that subscribe to the theory of “Buy and Hold – forever” and end up paying for that devotion. Never stay with an investment too long – when the market starts to move against you then move on.
Here is a short excerpt from one of his latest columns. The column was regarding cloud computing companies and there are a few companies that he discusses that I have reviewed here. You can check out the column to learn a bit more about the movers and shakers in that industry but the point that I really liked is the opening:
In the mid-90s, I worked for a company that sold software to many of the companies in the midst of the desktop internet revolution. As I would leave the sales calls, I would call my broker to buy stock in those very same companies. Unbeknownst to me at the time I was laying the groundwork for my investment premise today.
- Identify emerging trends as soon as possible: The build-out of the internet was a long term trend that would impact millions.
- Buy leading stocks in trend: As investment dollars poured into the internet, the leading companies’ stock exploded as they reaped the majority of the profits.
- Ride it as long as possible: Ride ‘em as long as they are printing money.
- Jump off: When the trend stops going up move on. Much easier said than done.
Never be afraid of not investing or as Dawson says: “Jump off”. You will not go broke by putting your money into a money market account that is very liquid. Hang back until you have identified a company that is worthy of your ownership and then only buy that company when it appears relatively certain that the stock price is going up.
If you have the time to read another investor blog, check out Trend Rida.