Company name General Cable Corporation
Stock ticker BGC
Live stock price [stckqut]BGC[/stckqut]
Confident Investor Rating Poor

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=bgc

General Cable Corporation is engaged in the development, design, manufacture, marketing and distribution of copper, aluminum and fiber optic wire and cable products for use in the energy, industrial, construction, specialty and communications markets. The Company additionally engages in the design, integration, and installation on a turn-key basis for products, such as high and extra-high voltage terrestrial and submarine systems. The Company operates in three segments: America, Europe and Mediterranean, and Rest of World (ROW). On December 3, 2012, the Company completed the acquisition of the Chinese business of Alcan Cable. On November 2, 2012, the Company acquired Prestolite Wire, LLC. On October 1, 2012, the Company acquired 60% of Productora de Cables Procables S.A.S. On September 4, 2012, the Company completed the acquisition of the North American business of Alcan Cable North America.

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in General Cable Corporation. It is not possible to confidently invest in a company that is not currently profitable.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

Company name Frontier Communications Corp
Stock ticker FTR
Live stock price [stckqut]FTR[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Fair
EBIT growth Poor

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Poor
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $3.92
Target stock price (averages with growth) $4.1
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $3.17
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $4.75

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ftr

Frontier Communications Corporation (Frontier) is a communications company providing services primarily to rural areas and small and medium-sized towns and cities in the United States. The Company offers a range of voice, data, Internet, and television services and products, some that are available a la carte, and others that are available as bundled or packaged solutions. It operated in 27 states, and was the Incumbent Local Exchange Carrier (ILEC), with approximately 5.3 million access lines and 1.8 million broadband connections as of December 31, 2011. During the year ended December 31, 2011, the Company added approximately 45,200 new High-Speed Internet (HSI) subscribers, net. At December 31, 2011, it had approximately 1,764,200 HSI customers. Throughout its properties, Frontier offers a video product through DISH Network (DISH) and, in addition, it offers fiber optic video services in three states. It added approximately 26,100 video subscribers, net during 2011.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Frontier Communications Corp.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $4.85

Growth: 0.09

Current EPS (TTM): $0.07

P/E: 71

Future EPS Calc: $0.1

Future Stock Price Calc: $7.64

Target stock price: $4.74

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

ID-10041448
Thinking long-term requires knowing where you are going

Not all companies deserve your long term investment capital. Just because a company is a Good company, doesn’t mean that you should make a long term investment in the company.

Perhaps you have been reading this site and you found a company that was rated “Good” on the Confident Investor Rating (CIR) scale. You now need to decide if this company is attractively priced for you to confidently make a profit on your investment. Just because a company is well-run does not mean that you should buy the stock. In fact, most well-run companies have a market value that is quite reasonable and may even be a bit high.

A well-run company can be a lousy long term investment if a large number of investors invest in the company. This drives the stock price up and inhibits your ability to get a bargain. Often, investors will invest in well-run companies only because they know that they will not lose a large amount of money as a long term investment. They accept there is a chance they will only receive a small return if the market goes up. If the company loses value, these large investors will use the small loss as a tax offset for their earnings on other investments.

This approach will not work for you! You are a small investor. You know that there is a risk in investing and nothing is a sure thing. You need to be reasonably confident that your long term investment will increase. For this reason, you need to calculate if the company is valued fairly or if you can get a bargain.

You need determine what the stock price should be for a company. You want all of your investments to appreciate at least 10%. You need to locate the companies growing at 10% and then calculate whether the stock price is appropriate based on that level of growth. I put several estimates of the long term price in all of my stock analysis posts that are published on this site. If you read my book, The Confident Investor, you will learn how to calculate these estimates.  You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as AmazonBarnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in e-book formats for NookKindle, and iPad.

It doesn’t take a huge amount of time to calculate the worthiness of a company as a long term investment. You simply need to follow some simple rules that I carefully cover in my book, The Confident Investor. Once you have mastered these rules, you can be assured that every stock investment that you make will satisfy your needs as a long term investment.

Image courtesy of Pixomar at FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Company name Service Corporation International
Stock ticker SCI
Live stock price [stckqut]SCI[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Fair
EBIT growth Fair

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $17.04
Target stock price (averages with growth) $20.94
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $18.62
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $18.09

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=sci

Service International Corp., formerly Service Corporation International, is a provider of deathcare products and services, with a network of funeral service locations and cemeteries primarily operating in the United States and Canada. Its operations consist of funeral service locations, cemeteries, funeral service/cemetery combination locations, crematoria, and related businesses. The Company operates in two segments: funeral and cemetery operations. Its funeral service and cemetery operations consist of funeral service locations, cemeteries, funeral service/cemetery combination locations, crematoria, and related businesses. The Company sells cemetery property and funeral and cemetery products and services at the time of need and on a preneed basis. In December 2013, the Company announced that it completed its acquisition of Stewart Enterprises, Inc.

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Service Corporation International as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $18.44

Growth: 0.1

Current EPS (TTM): $0.67

P/E: 27

Future EPS Calc: $1.07

Future Stock Price Calc: $29.13

Target stock price: $18.09

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

Company name Netflix, Inc.
Stock ticker NFLX
Live stock price [stckqut]NFLX[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Poor

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $498.06
Target stock price (averages with growth) $576.14
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $292.24
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $334.39

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=nflx

Netflix, Inc. is an Internet television network with more than 33 million members in over 40 countries. In the United States, the Company’s subscribers can receive standard definition digital versatile disc (DVDs), and their high definition successor, Blu-ray discs (collectively DVD), delivered quickly to their homes. The Company operates in three segments: Domestic streaming, International streaming and Domestic DVD. Domestic and International streaming segments derive revenues from monthly subscription services consisting solely of streaming content. The Domestic DVD segment derives revenues from monthly subscription services consisting solely of DVD-by-mail.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Netflix, Inc. as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $322.06

Growth: 0.15

Current EPS (TTM): $1.19

P/E: 225

Future EPS Calc: $2.39

Future Stock Price Calc: $538.54

Target stock price: $334.39

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]