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Company name Panera Bread Co
Stock ticker PNRA
Live stock price [stckqut]PNRA[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Fair
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $143.47
Target stock price (averages with growth) $216.51
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $202.39
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $162.02

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=pnra

Panera Bread Company (Panera) s a national bakery-cafe concept with 1,541 Company-owned and franchise-operated bakery-cafe locations in42 states, the District of Columbia, and Ontario, Canada. Panera operates under the Panera Bread, Saint Louis Bread Co. and Paradise Bakery & Cafe trademark names. Its bakery-cafes are located in urban, suburban, strip mall, and regional mall locations. The Company operates in three business segments: Company bakery-cafe operations, franchise operations, and fresh dough and other product operations. As of December 27, 2011, its Company bakery-cafe operations segment consisted of 740 Company-owned bakery-cafes, located throughout the United States and in Ontario, Canada. On July 26, 2011, the Company purchased five Paradise Bakery & Cafe (Paradise) bakery-cafes and the related area development rights from an Indiana franchisee. On April 19, 2011, the Company purchased 25 bakery-cafes and the related area development rights from a Milwaukee franchisee.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Panera Bread Co as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns. I am going to leave Panera on my Watch List in the hopes that it will improve some of these metrics.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Panera Bread Co calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $153.5

Growth: 0.12

Current EPS (TTM): $6.73

P/E: 22

Future EPS Calc: $11.86

Future Stock Price Calc: $260.93

Target stock price: $162.01

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

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Company name Priceline Group Inc
Stock ticker PCLN
Live stock price [stckqut]PCLN[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $1790.33
Target stock price (averages with growth) $2362.88
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $1561.02
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $1531.5

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=pcln

Priceline Group Inc, formerly Priceline Com Incorporated, incorporated on July 30, 1998, is an online travel company that offers its customers hotel room reservations at over 295,000 hotels worldwide through the Booking.com, priceline.com and Agoda brands. In the United States, the Company also offers its customers reservations for car rentals, airline tickets, vacation packages, destination services and cruises through the priceline.com brand. It offers car rental reservations worldwide through rentalcars.com. During the year ended December 31, 2012, its international business (the majority of which is generated by Booking.com) represented approximately 82% of its gross bookings (an operating and statistical metric referring to the total dollar value, generally inclusive of all taxes and fees, of all travel services purchased by its customers), and approximately 92% of its consolidated operating income.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Priceline Group Inc.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Priceline Group Inc calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $1158.79

Growth: 0.17

Current EPS (TTM): $37.5

P/E: 30

Future EPS Calc: $82.21

Future Stock Price Calc: $2466.5

Target stock price: $1531.5

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

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Company name Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
Stock ticker NLY
Live stock price [stckqut]NLY[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $18.15
Target stock price (averages with growth) $18.26
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $12.74
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $13.98

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=nly

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (Annaly) owns, manage, and finance a portfolio of real estate related investments, including mortgage pass-through certificates, collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), Agency callable debentures, and other securities representing interests in or obligations backed by pools of mortgage loans. The Company’s wholly owned subsidiaries offer diversified real estate, asset management and other financial services. The Company’s subsidiary, RCap Securities, Inc. (RCap), operates as a broker-dealer. The Company also invests in Agency debentures, which consist of debentures issued by the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB), Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. In August 2012, the Company liquidated FIDAC FSI LLC. In December 2012, the Company sold FIDAC Europe Limited. As of December 31, 2012, all of the mortgage-backed securities, which it has acquired, have been backed by single-family residential mortgage loans.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $11.73

Growth: 0.15

Current EPS (TTM): $3.73

P/E: 3

Future EPS Calc: $7.5

Future Stock Price Calc: $22.5

Target stock price: $13.97

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

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time photoAre you wasting money? What would you buy if it cost you part of your life to purchase it? Would you buy worthless things? Would you invest your money if your life depended on it?

In 2011, there was a movie that didn’t do incredibly well at the box office called “In Time” starring Justin Timberlake. I won’t give away any plot twists from the movie, but the basic plot was that the amount of time that you had to live had become currency.

The movie is accurate in one very important aspect, what you spend costs you part of your life and the working poor characters at the beginning of the movie are very concerned about wasting money (or time in their case). The money that you earn is given to you in return for the time you spend working. Sure, your expertise and skill are the reason that you may make more or less than another person. However, the application of that skill or expertise over time is how you earn the money.

IntimefairuseSo if the old saying is true that “Time is money” then the money you spend is some of your time. Since you are not given more time in your life (unlike the above movie), every purchase you make costs you some amount of your precious time to create the wealth that funds that purchase. That’s what opportunity costs are all about – giving up something in return for something else that we find valuable. When you are wasting money on something that is not important, you are essentially wasting part of your precious time and wasting your life creating that money.

Your wages are an exchange for the time and expertise you committed to your job. Put simply, you were paid money for a portion of your life. The money you spend represents the hours of your life that you sacrificed to earn that income.

With that in mind, shouldn’t you spend every dollar knowing that it represents a small portion of your life? Shouldn’t you stop wasting money since it is the same thing as wasting away part of your life?

If you earn $40,000 a year, your hourly income is about $20 before tax. Before you commit to spending any of those dollars, ask yourself, “Is this purchase worth the hour of my life I gave up?”

Photo by Moyan_Brenn (back soon, sorry for not commenting)