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Company name Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc.
Stock ticker ULTA
Live stock price [stckqut]ULTA[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $348.8
Target stock price (averages with growth) $389.28
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $179.32
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $345.07

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ulta

Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. is a beauty retailer. The Company operates specialty retail stores selling cosmetics, fragrance, haircare and skincare products, and related accessories and services. The Company operates through three segments: retail stores, salon services and e-commerce. The Company also offers a full-service salon in every store featuring hair, skin and brow services. The Company offers approximately 20,000 products from over 500 beauty brands across all categories and price points, including its own private label, the Ulta Beauty Collection. The Company operates over 870 stores in approximately 50 states. The Company offers a loyalty program, Ultamate Rewards, and targeted promotions through its Customer Relationship Management (CRM) platform. It also offers promotions and coupons, in-store events and gifts with purchase. The Company’s e-commerce business, Ulta.com, provides access to product and store information, beauty trends and techniques.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $233.79
  • Growth: 0.19
  • Current EPS (TTM): $5.68
  • P/E: 41
  • Future EPS Calc: $13.55
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $555.73
  • Target stock price: $345.06

[/s2If]
I hope that this makes you a Confident Investor.

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Company name Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc.
Stock ticker ULTA
Live stock price [stckqut]ULTA[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $231.47
Target stock price (averages with growth) $252.72
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $117.06
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $221.25

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ulta
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. (Ulta) is a beauty retailer. The Company provides salon products and salon services in the United States. It offers a combination of more than 20,000 prestige and mass beauty products. As of January 31, 2015, it operated 774 stores in 47 states. The Company offers products in the categories, including cosmetics, which includes products for the face, eyes, cheeks, lips and nails; haircare, which includes shampoos, conditioners, styling products and hair accessories; salon styling tools, which includes hair dryers, curling irons and flat irons; skincare and bath and body, which includes products for the face, hands and body; fragrance; nail polish and nail care products; men’s skincare, haircare and fragrance products; private label, consisting of Ulta branded cosmetics, skincare, bath and body products and haircare, and other health and beauty products.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $157.7
  • Growth: 0.18
  • Current EPS (TTM): $4.45
  • P/E: 35
  • Future EPS Calc: $10.18
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $356.31
  • Target stock price: $221.24

[/s2If]
I hope that this makes you a Confident Investor.

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Company name The J.M. Smucker Company
Stock ticker SJM
Live stock price [stckqut]SJM[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Fair
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $106.52
Target stock price (averages with growth) $118.91
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $98.4
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $102.79

The following company description is from Google Finance: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ASJM&sq=sjm&sp=2&ei=ilCfU6C2IsHGrQGL9IHoBQ

The J. M. Smucker Company operates principally in the manufacturing and marketing of branded food products. Majority of the Company’s sales are in the United States. The Company’s operations outside the United States are principally in Canada, although products are exported to other countries as well. The Company operates in three segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Consumer Foods, and International, Foodservice and Natural Foods. In August 2013, the Company completed an acquisition of Enray Inc.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in The J.M. Smucker Company as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of The J.M. Smucker Company calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $105.83
  • Growth: 0.1
  • Current EPS (TTM): $5.41
  • P/E: 19
  • Future EPS Calc: $8.71
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $165.54
  • Target stock price: $102.79

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]