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Starbucks [stckqut]SBUX[/stckqut] said it would pay its first-ever dividend, totaling 10 cents a share. The company also increased its share-buyback plan.

The share-buyback will likely help the stock price (as well as the dividend will encourage some people to buy). However, if you are correctly managing your portfolio by avoiding downturns in the stock, it is easy to miss dividend payout dates so be careful in buying this stock JUST for the dividend. You may do better to watch the market movement and minimize your losses when the market drops – foregoing the dividend check.

My last analysis of Starbucks had them ranked as a Poor Company.

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Company name Costco Wholesale Corporation
Stock ticker COST
Live stock price [stckqut]COST[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair
MANAGEMENT EXECUTION
Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Poor
ANALYSIS
Confident Investor Rating Poor
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $38.18
Target stock price (averages with growth) $50.6
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $52.61
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $43.04

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

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The market for most stocks right now is flat (and some are moving down). Except for a few stocks, it really doesn’t make sense to have your hard earned money invested. Depending on your favorite indicator, most are showing the good companies to be in an over-bought condition. This condition is likely to continue through the week (or longer).

It doesn’t help that the US market is trying to figure out what ObamaCare is going to do to individual companies. Some will win and some will lose on ObamaCare – the challenge is to figure out what is going on.  That consternation is likely adding to the current flat market in most stocks.

Don’t be afraid to take a short-term break from a position. You don’t lose money in this environment by watching from the sidelines as a stock retreats a bit from its latest highs. The best thing about a downward move is that it gives you a better price when the stock starts to move up.

It is the nature of mankind to want to spend money that is sitting around. Be patient. Let your investment capital earn money market rates and then you will be in a position to take advantage of a move up when the time is right.

There are a few stocks that are still showing some price growth but it is likely that if you are not currently invested in those companies then you may be too late.  To get a good idea of the stocks that I am invested in, the Watch List to the right are the companies that I currently think are worthy of my money. However, with the current bears running all over the place, I am not holding significant shares in some of them – I am taking my own advice and waiting for them to start moving up.

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Company name Almost Family, Inc.
Stock ticker AFAM
Live stock price [stckqut]AFAM[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good
MANAGEMENT EXECUTION
Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good
ANALYSIS
Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $88.76
Target stock price (averages with growth) $106.91
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $72.95
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $58.45

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

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According to USA Today, the average income tax refund is up 10% over last year. You can expect a few outcomes that may affect how you purchase stock. The most obvious example is that big ticket items that need a down payment may take a slight boost.  The people that have been saving for a new TV, car, or home get a windfall check, they may accelerate their purchase. The obvious benefactors here are Ford [stckqut]F[/stckqut], GM [stckqut]GM[/stckqut], and Toyota [stckqut]TM[/stckqut].

Similarly, vacations may be a bit better this year because of this extra cash and that could affect destination stocks such as Disney [stckqut]DIS[/stckqut] or Marriott [stckqut]MAR[/stckqut].

However, the smart money doesn’t spend the extra money on incidentals. A much better strategy is to take a look at one of the stocks on my Watch List to the right and buy one of these securities when the market triggers say that they stock is ready to move up.  That way you take your extra “free” money and multiply it into more free money! If the average increase is a bit over $3,000 as the article claims, that is 25-100 shares of most of these companies.