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Company name HMS Holdings Corp.
Stock ticker HMSY
Live stock price [stckqut]HMSY[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $42.97
Target stock price (averages with growth) $56.38
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $36.22
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $42.58

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=hmsy

HMS Holdings Corp. (HMS) provides cost containment services to Government and private healthcare payers and sponsors. The Company’s services ensure that healthcare claims are paid correctly, through its program integrity services, and by the responsible party, through its coordination of benefits services. Its clients are state Medicaid agencies, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), Medicaid and Medicare managed care plans, Government and private employers, Pharmacy Benefit Managers, or PBMs, child support agencies, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), commercial plans, and other healthcare payers. As of December 31, 2011, HMS served 43 state Medicaid agencies and the District of Columbia, and 137 Medicaid managed care plans under 66 contracts. In December 2011, the Company acquired HDI Holdings, Inc. and its operating subsidiary, HealthDataInsights, Inc. (HDI).

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

 

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Company name Herbalife Ltd.
Stock ticker HLF
Live stock price [stckqut]HLF[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $81.21
Target stock price (averages with growth) $95.15
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $60.96
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $73.98

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=hlf

Herbalife Ltd. is a global network marketing company that sells weight management, nutritional supplements, energy, sports and fitness products and personal care products through a network of approximately 2.7 million independent distributors, except in China, where the Company sells its products through retail stores. The Company is a network marketing company that sells a range of weight management products, nutritional supplements and personal care products. As of December 31, 2011, the Company sold products in 79 countries throughout the world. Herbalife’s products are grouped in four principal categories: weight management, targeted nutrition, energy, sports and fitness and Outer Nutrition, along with literature and promotional items. The Company’s generates revenue from its six regions: North America, Mexico, South and Central America; EMEA, which consists of Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific (excluding China), and China.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

 

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Company name Google Inc
Stock ticker GOOG
Live stock price [stckqut]GOOG[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $1150.69
Target stock price (averages with growth) $1631.06
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $1268.25
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $1054.11

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=goog

Google Inc. (Google) is a global technology company focused on improving the ways people connect with information. The Company generates revenue primarily by delivering online advertising. As of December 31, 2011, the Company’s business was focused on areas, such as search, advertising, operating systems and platforms, and enterprise. Businesses use its AdWords program to promote their products and services with targeted advertising. In addition, the third parties that comprise the Google Network use its AdSense program to deliver relevant advertisements that generate revenue. In June 2011, it launched Google+. In September 2011, the Company acquired Zagat. In May 2012, Google acquired Motorola Mobility Holdings, Inc. As of January 2012, over 90 million people had joined Google+. In April 2011, the Company acquired PushLife. On July 31, 2012, it acquired marketing start-up Wildfire. In September 2012, it acquired VirusTotal and Nik Software.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

 

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Company name Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc.
Stock ticker GMCR
Live stock price [stckqut]GMCR[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $33.96
Target stock price (averages with growth) $76.6
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $81.9
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $33.53

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=gmcr

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (GMCR) is engaged in the specialty coffee and coffee maker businesses. The Company roasts Arabica bean coffees, including single-origin, Fair Trade Certified, certified organic, flavored, limited edition and blends offered in K-Cup portion packs, whole bean and ground coffee selections, as well as other specialty beverages, including tea, hot apple cider and hot cocoa also offered in K-Cup portion packs. The Company operates in three segments: the Specialty Coffee business unit (SCBU), the Keurig business unit (KBU) and the Canadian business unit (CBU). On December 17, 2010, the Company acquired LJVH Holdings Inc. (Van Houtte). In October 3, 2011, the Company sold Van Houtte USA Holdings, Inc. to ARAMARK Refreshment Services, LLC.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock. I continue to think that the company is a well-run company but it’s stock price has been hammered lately.  Based on the current stock price, I have significantly reduced expectations since the last time that I looked at the company.

 

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Company name Extra Space Storage, Inc.
Stock ticker EXR
Live stock price [stckqut]EXR[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $52.3
Target stock price (averages with growth) $49.29
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $31.26
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $36.93

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=exr

Extra Space Storage Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company owns, operates, manages, acquires, develops and redevelops professionally managed self-storage facilities. As of December 31, 2011, Extra Space Storage Inc. held ownership interests in 697 operating properties. Of these operating properties, 356 are wholly owned, and 341 are owned in joint venture partnerships. An additional 185 operating properties that are owned by franchisees or third-parties in exchange for a management fee, bringing the total number of operating properties, which it owns and/or manages to 882. The Company operates in three segments: property management, acquisition and development; rental operations, and tenant reinsurance.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns. The company has dropped a bit since the last time that I reviewed it. This drop is primarily because of the decrease in growth of P/E. This metric is very hard for the managers of the company to control so I don’t want to penalize them too much.  I am leaving the company on the Watch List until the next time I review.  It is one of the few REITs on my list so I want to be slower to penalize.