One of the biggest challenges in investing in the stock market is picking the best stocks. In my book, “The Confident Investor” I teach my readers how to pick Good Companies. This page is designed to show the raw performance of these companies. It is not designed to show my personal portfolio, which may or may not exceed the performance stated here. Since I use the trading system described in my book, you can assume that I beat the performance recorded here.

I must caution you, I do not actually propose that you “buy and hold” any given stock, but rather you should “buy to hold” the stock. My investing technique teaches you to efficiently move your money to the stocks that are currently increasing in value the most. I use my Watch List for this work, these are Good Companies that I wait for great buying opportunities. This strategy is well described in my book, “The Confident Investor” and tends to be a very safe strategy in bear markets while typically still providing above market returns in a bull or flat market.

My Short Term Watch List are 15 companies that are hot right now. I select this list every quarter. I evenly divide a portion of my portfolio among these 15 companies. The next quarter, I add or delete companies as necessary and then re-balance the portfolio. This tends to be a more risky strategy because I don’t bail out on bad stock movement (at least until the end of the quarter). In a bull market or a flat market, these very well-run and high-performing companies tend to beat the general market by a significant margin.

BL-TCI-cover

You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in paperback as well as e-book formats for Nook, Kindle, and iPad.

WATCH LIST STOCK RESULTS

 

Stock
Ticker
Company
name
Current
price
Year
ago
Year ago
change
Quarter
ago
Quarter ago
change
Month
ago
Month ago
change
Week
ago
Week ago
change
AAPL Apple Inc. $204.23 $185.14 10.31% $196.23 4.07% $190.15 7.40% $197.92 3.19%
ABMD ABIOMED, Inc. $261.47 $405.99 -35.60% $284.91 -8.23% $267.87 -2.39% $260.49 0.38%
ADBE Adobe Systems Incorporated $303.98 $248.19 22.48% $267.45 13.66% $278.16 9.28% $294.65 3.17%
ALGN Align Technology, Inc. $273.29 $347.47 -21.35% $295.88 -7.63% $307.66 -11.17% $273.70 -0.15%
AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. $43.98 $45.19 -2.68% $42.82 2.71% $41.51 5.95% $44.91 -2.07%
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. $1,942.91 $1,710.63 13.58% $1,837.28 5.75% $1,804.03 7.70% $1,893.63 2.60%
ANET Arista Networks Inc $270.74 $262.39 3.18% $311.06 -12.96% $246.44 9.86% $259.62 4.28%
ATHM Autohome Inc $85.56 $104.81 -18.37% $108.51 -21.15% $91.78 -6.78% $85.62 -0.07%
AVGO Broadcom Inc $282.66 $238.80 18.37% $301.37 -6.21% $272.24 3.83% $287.86 -1.81%
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd $173.30 $192.27 -9.87% $185.35 -6.50% $154.23 12.36% $169.45 2.27%
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc $1,924.75 $2,086.93 -7.77% $1,769.45 8.78% $1,778.29 8.24% $1,874.71 2.67%
CBPO China Biologic Products Holdings Inc $94.82 $97.29 -2.54% $96.61 -1.85% $88.70 6.90% $95.30 -0.50%
COHR Coherent, Inc. $134.39 $157.83 -14.85% $152.64 -11.96% $119.66 12.31% $136.37 -1.45%
CVGW Calavo Growers, Inc. $96.19 $96.80 -0.63% $89.67 7.27% $92.00 4.55% $96.74 -0.57%
DPZ Domino’s Pizza, Inc. $278.26 $276.63 0.59% $253.97 9.56% $286.34 -2.82% $278.28 -0.01%
ETFC E*TRADE Financial Corp $46.15 $60.05 -23.15% $48.63 -5.11% $46.06 0.20% $44.60 3.48%
EPAM EPAM Systems Inc $180.11 $128.26 40.43% $168.35 6.99% $176.75 1.90% $173.10 4.05%
EVR Evercore Inc $89.66 $105.09 -14.68% $93.28 -3.88% $87.87 2.04% $88.57 1.23%
FB Facebook, Inc. Common Stock $196.40 $203.23 -3.36% $175.72 11.77% $173.35 13.30% $193.00 1.76%
FIVE Five Below Inc $127.47 $98.90 28.89% $125.41 1.64% $127.52 -0.04% $120.02 6.21%
FTNT Fortinet Inc $78.89 $64.97 21.43% $84.11 -6.21% $73.82 6.87% $76.83 2.68%
GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A $1,132.66 $1,155.08 -1.94% $1,211.45 -6.50% $1,068.37 6.02% $1,082.80 4.60%
GTN Gray Television, Inc. $16.91 $16.05 5.36% $22.58 -25.11% $16.47 2.67% $16.39 3.17%
HZO MarineMax Inc $16.83 $20.30 -17.09% $19.59 -14.09% $16.52 1.88% $16.44 2.37%
ILMN Illumina, Inc. $378.23 $286.13 32.19% $323.50 16.92% $335.49 12.74% $368.15 2.74%
JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC $141.07 $177.67 -20.60% $144.48 -2.36% $130.97 7.71% $142.56 -1.05%
KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc $33.59 $37.74 -10.99% $33.25 1.03% $30.17 11.34% $32.84 2.28%
LGIH LGI Homes Inc $70.13 $57.97 20.98% $67.11 4.50% $74.43 -5.78% $71.43 -1.82%
LRCX Lam Research Corporation $183.64 $169.35 8.44% $194.03 -5.35% $185.61 -1.06% $187.84 -2.24%
LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. $183.21 $128.54 42.53% $169.37 8.17% $172.49 6.21% $180.21 1.66%
MA Mastercard Inc $272.14 $198.67 36.98% $236.30 15.17% $265.80 2.39% $264.53 2.88%
MEOH Methanex Corporation $45.40 $70.21 -35.33% $59.15 -23.24% $41.92 8.31% $45.46 -0.13%
MKSI MKS Instruments, Inc. $78.02 $96.33 -19.01% $98.81 -21.04% $73.76 5.78% $77.89 0.17%
MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. $341.90 $200.86 70.21% $253.43 34.91% $334.61 2.18% $321.42 6.37%
MTZ MasTec, Inc. $52.22 $52.45 -0.44% $50.34 3.73% $49.65 5.18% $51.53 1.34%
MTCH Match Group Inc $72.28 $38.02 90.11% $54.92 31.61% $70.99 1.82% $67.27 7.45%
NFLX Netflix, Inc. $380.55 $408.25 -6.79% $365.49 4.12% $360.87 5.45% $367.32 3.60%
NSP Insperity Inc $127.15 $95.47 33.18% $128.09 -0.73% $119.43 6.46% $122.14 4.10%
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation $160.23 $246.41 -34.97% $190.73 -15.99% $145.50 10.12% $164.23 -2.44%
NXST Nexstar Media Group Inc $110.10 $74.13 48.52% $112.27 -1.93% $98.47 11.81% $101.00 9.01%
PATK Patrick Industries, Inc. $48.32 $60.45 -20.07% $46.97 2.87% $43.83 10.24% $49.19 -1.77%
PYPL Paypal Holdings Inc $117.16 $85.94 36.33% $105.73 10.81% $114.02 2.75% $114.46 2.36%
SBUX Starbucks Corporation $87.79 $47.91 83.25% $74.69 17.55% $82.48 6.44% $83.83 4.72%
SINA SINA Corp $43.91 $84.30 -47.91% $66.32 -33.79% $40.19 9.26% $43.13 1.81%
SIVB SVB Financial Group $222.90 $295.42 -24.55% $237.46 -6.13% $212.94 4.68% $224.59 -0.75%
STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. Class A $197.49 $211.76 -6.74% $192.58 2.55% $188.40 4.82% $196.94 0.28%
SUI Sun Communities Inc $133.01 $96.69 37.56% $119.81 11.02% $129.02 3.10% $128.19 3.76%
SWKS Skyworks Solutions Inc $80.33 $98.20 -18.19% $86.32 -6.94% $70.15 14.51% $77.27 3.96%
TGS Transportadora de Gas del Sur SA (ADR) $14.73 $12.16 21.10% $11.08 32.99% $13.16 11.93% $14.46 1.87%
THRM Gentherm Inc $40.63 $40.80 -0.42% $39.63 2.52% $39.75 2.21% $41.83 -2.87%
TMUS T-Mobile Us Inc $76.23 $61.14 24.68% $70.35 8.36% $77.03 -1.04% $74.14 2.82%
TNET TriNet Group Inc $69.15 $55.09 25.52% $60.69 13.94% $65.05 6.30% $67.80 1.99%
ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc $344.95 $242.61 42.18% $353.63 -2.45% $338.16 2.01% $346.89 -0.56%
UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc $246.99 $247.10 -0.04% $247.69 -0.28% $245.69 0.53% $244.01 1.22%
V Visa Inc $176.66 $133.22 32.61% $157.41 12.23% $170.05 3.89% $173.55 1.79%
WCG WellCare Health Plans, Inc. $282.55 $253.39 11.51% $283.22 -0.24% $288.33 -2.00% $285.07 -0.88%

Over the last year, my Watch List returned 3.12%
Over the last quarter, my Watch List returned 2.28%
Over the last month, my Watch List returned 5.27%
Over the last week, my Watch List returned 2.16%

 

SHORT TERM WATCH LIST STOCK RESULTS

 

Stock
Ticker
Company
name
Current
price
Year
ago
Year ago
change
Quarter
ago
Quarter ago
change
Month
ago
Month ago
change
Week
ago
Week ago
change
ADBE Adobe Systems Incorporated $303.98 $248.19 22.48% $267.45 13.66% $278.16 9.28% $294.65 3.17%
EPAM EPAM Systems Inc $180.11 $128.26 40.43% $168.35 6.99% $176.75 1.90% $173.10 4.05%
FIVE Five Below Inc $127.47 $98.90 28.89% $125.41 1.64% $127.52 -0.04% $120.02 6.21%
ILMN Illumina, Inc. $378.23 $286.13 32.19% $323.50 16.92% $335.49 12.74% $368.15 2.74%
LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. $183.21 $128.54 42.53% $169.37 8.17% $172.49 6.21% $180.21 1.66%
MA Mastercard Inc $272.14 $198.67 36.98% $236.30 15.17% $265.80 2.39% $264.53 2.88%
MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. $341.90 $200.86 70.21% $253.43 34.91% $334.61 2.18% $321.42 6.37%
MTCH Match Group Inc $72.28 $38.02 90.11% $54.92 31.61% $70.99 1.82% $67.27 7.45%
NSP Insperity Inc $127.15 $95.47 33.18% $128.09 -0.73% $119.43 6.46% $122.14 4.10%
NXST Nexstar Media Group Inc $110.10 $74.13 48.52% $112.27 -1.93% $98.47 11.81% $101.00 9.01%
PYPL Paypal Holdings Inc $117.16 $85.94 36.33% $105.73 10.81% $114.02 2.75% $114.46 2.36%
SBUX Starbucks Corporation $87.79 $47.91 83.25% $74.69 17.55% $82.48 6.44% $83.83 4.72%
SUI Sun Communities Inc $133.01 $96.69 37.56% $119.81 11.02% $129.02 3.10% $128.19 3.76%
TNET TriNet Group Inc $69.15 $55.09 25.52% $60.69 13.94% $65.05 6.30% $67.80 1.99%
V Visa Inc $176.66 $133.22 32.61% $157.41 12.23% $170.05 3.89% $173.55 1.79%

Over the last year, my Short Term Watch List returned 39.89%
Over the last quarter, my Short Term Watch List returned 13.70%
Over the last month, my Short Term Watch List returned 5.51%
Over the last week, my Short Term Watch List returned 3.88%

Short Term List returned 40%
High growth stock: Match Group Inc ($MTCH) at 90%
Total Execution Time: 0.78580498695374 Sec

Symbol Stock Price change today
SIVB SVB Financial Group 2.1212%
EPAM EPAM Systems Inc 1.5333%
ETFC E*TRADE Financial Corp 1.3617%
FIVE Five Below Inc 1.2631%
SINA SINA Corp 1.2218%
MEOH Methanex Corporation 1.2037%
KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc 1.1138%
MTCH Match Group Inc 1.0344%
MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. 1.0044%
HZO MarineMax Inc 0.8993%
GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A 0.8615%
UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc 0.7259%
ANET Arista Networks Inc 0.6992%
PATK Patrick Industries, Inc. 0.5619%
TMUS T-Mobile Us Inc 0.5408%
EVR Evercore Inc 0.5382%
WCG WellCare Health Plans, Inc. 0.3053%
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc 0.2657%
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. 0.2017%
GTN Gray Television, Inc. 0.1777%
MTZ MasTec, Inc. 0.1726%
ILMN Illumina, Inc. 0.1085%
TNET TriNet Group Inc 0.0868%
FTNT Fortinet Inc 0.0634%
ABMD ABIOMED, Inc. 0.0536%
CVGW Calavo Growers, Inc. 0.0104%
SBUX Starbucks Corporation 0%
TGS Transportadora de Gas del Sur SA (ADR) 0%
AAPL Apple Inc. -0.0881%
V Visa Inc -0.1187%
ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc -0.139%
NXST Nexstar Media Group Inc -0.2898%
NFLX Netflix, Inc. -0.3065%
MA Mastercard Inc -0.3442%
SUI Sun Communities Inc -0.3969%
FB Facebook, Inc. Common Stock -0.4057%
LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. -0.4239%
PYPL Paypal Holdings Inc -0.4419%
SWKS Skyworks Solutions Inc -0.4462%
CBPO China Biologic Products Holdings Inc -0.4932%
THRM Gentherm Inc -0.5142%
ADBE Adobe Systems Incorporated -0.5626%
ALGN Align Technology, Inc. -0.6218%
LRCX Lam Research Corporation -0.66%
AVGO Broadcom Inc -0.7828%
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd -0.7843%
DPZ Domino’s Pizza, Inc. -0.961%
NSP Insperity Inc -1.0583%
MKSI MKS Instruments, Inc. -1.0777%
STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. Class A -1.2056%
JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC -1.5149%
AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. -1.5447%
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation -1.5484%
COHR Coherent, Inc. -1.8048%
ATHM Autohome Inc -2.0941%
LGIH LGI Homes Inc -4.1154%

Stock ticker Stock name Last Close Recommendation
AAPL Apple Inc. $204.4100 Strong Buy or Hold
ABMD ABIOMED, Inc. $261.3300 Possible Buy or Hold, but some concerns
ADBE Adobe Systems Incorporated $305.7000 Strong Buy or Hold
ALGN Align Technology, Inc. $275.0000 Very Concerned, may need to wait
AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. $44.6700 Strong Buy or Hold
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. $1939.0000 Strong Buy or Hold
ANET Arista Networks Inc $268.8600 Strong Buy or Hold
ATHM Autohome Inc $ Very Concerned, may need to wait
AVGO Broadcom Inc $284.8900 Concerned, but watch close as good things may happen soon
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd $174.6700 Strong Buy or Hold
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc $1919.6500 Strong Buy or Hold
CBPO China Biologic Products Holdings Inc $95.2900 Strong Buy or Hold
COHR Coherent, Inc. $136.8600 Strong Buy or Hold
CVGW Calavo Growers, Inc. $96.1800 Very Concerned, may need to wait
DPZ Domino’s Pizza, Inc. $280.9600 Some Concerns, may need to wait
ETFC E*TRADE Financial Corp $ Very Concerned, may need to wait
EPAM EPAM Systems Inc $ Very Concerned, may need to wait
EVR Evercore Inc $ Very Concerned, may need to wait
FB Facebook, Inc. Common Stock $197.2000 Strong Buy or Hold
FIVE Five Below Inc $ Very Concerned, may need to wait
FTNT Fortinet Inc $ Very Concerned, may need to wait
GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A $1122.9900 Possible Buy or Hold, but some concerns
GTN Gray Television, Inc. $16.8800 Possible Buy or Hold, but some concerns
HZO MarineMax Inc $16.6800 Strong Buy or Hold
ILMN Illumina, Inc. $377.8200 Strong Buy or Hold, but there are some concerns
JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC $143.2400 Strong Buy or Hold
KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc $33.2200 Strong Buy or Hold
LGIH LGI Homes Inc $73.1400 Strong Buy or Hold
LRCX Lam Research Corporation $184.8600 Concerned, but watch close as good things may happen soon
LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. $183.9900 Concerned, but watch close as good things may happen soon
MA Mastercard Inc $273.0800 Strong Buy or Hold
MEOH Methanex Corporation $ Very Concerned, may need to wait
MKSI MKS Instruments, Inc. $78.8700 Concerned, but watch close as good things may happen soon
MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. $338.5000 Strong Buy or Hold
MTZ MasTec, Inc. $52.1300 Strong Buy or Hold
MTCH Match Group Inc $ Very Concerned, may need to wait
NFLX Netflix, Inc. $381.7200 Strong Buy or Hold
NSP Insperity Inc $128.5100 Strong Buy or Hold, but there are some concerns
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation $162.7500 Strong Buy or Hold
NXST Nexstar Media Group Inc $110.4200 Strong Buy or Hold
PATK Patrick Industries, Inc. $48.0500 Strong Buy or Hold
PYPL Paypal Holdings Inc $117.6800 Strong Buy or Hold
SBUX Starbucks Corporation $87.7900 Concerned, but watch close as good things may happen soon
SINA SINA Corp $ Very Concerned, may need to wait
SIVB SVB Financial Group $ Very Concerned, may need to wait
STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. Class A $199.9000 Strong Buy or Hold
SUI Sun Communities Inc $133.5400 Very Concerned, may need to wait
SWKS Skyworks Solutions Inc $80.6900 Strong Buy or Hold
TGS Transportadora de Gas del Sur SA (ADR) $14.7300 Concerned, but watch close as good things may happen soon
THRM Gentherm Inc $40.8400 Concerned, but watch close as good things may happen soon
TMUS T-Mobile Us Inc $75.8200 Very Concerned, may need to wait
TNET TriNet Group Inc $69.0900 Very Concerned, may need to wait
ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc $345.4300 Very Concerned, may need to wait
UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc $245.2100 Very Concerned, may need to wait
V Visa Inc $176.8700 Concerned, but watch close as good things may happen soon
WCG WellCare Health Plans, Inc. $281.6900 Very Concerned, may need to wait

Company name Union Pacific Corporation
Stock ticker UNP
Live stock price [stckqut]UNP[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $177.53
Target stock price (averages with growth) $235.79
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $195.58
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $163.52

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=unp

Union Pacific Corporation (UPC) owns transportation companies. Its principal operating company, Union Pacific Railroad Company, links 23 states in the western 66% of the country. Union Pacific Railroad Company’s business mix includes agricultural products, automotive, chemicals, energy, industrial products and intermodal. Union Pacific Railroad Company connects with Canada’s rail systems and is the railroad serving six gateways to Mexico. Union Pacific Railroad Company (UPRR) is a Class I railroad operating in the United States. In June 2012, the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary, PS Technology (PST), acquired the Yard Control Systems division of Ansaldo STS USA.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

For owners of my book, The Confident Investor I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $157.32

Growth: 0.12

Current EPS (TTM): $8.79

P/E: 17

Future EPS Calc: $15.49

Future Stock Price Calc: $263.34

Target stock price: $163.52

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]