I recently discussed how I use Google Finance to do part of my "quick" analysis of a stock when a reader asks my advice. Typically, I receive these requests from Twitter (@ConfidentInvest) or via the Contact Me on this site. After I do the quick review of a company on Google Finance, I need to dig in a bit more before I give an opinion on the stock. Most of that work, I do on MSN Money.

As you can tell by the metrics I report in my analysis reports, I worry about the 10 year growth history of 4 major metrics:

  1. P/E
  2. EBIT
  3. Sales
  4. Profit

I also look at the ability of a company’s managers to manage their revenue and profitability as a function of the number of employees.

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To find the 10 year history, go to 10-Year Summary on the left side of the page. Also go to Key Ratios and further select 10-YEAR SUMMARY across the top of that page. When I do a full analysis for my site, I enter these values into a spreadsheet and perform trend analysis that closely models the rate of growth. I call this deep analysis TWCA and will explain more about that technique in the future. However, for a quick response to a reader’s question, I will do a mental calculation that the values are growing at a fairly even pace over the past decade. My concern is a major change in the numbers (especially negative growth). If the growth is relatively consistent, then I assume that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in the company.

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I then quickly look at the revenue per employee and then income per employee. This is found in the Key Ratios section but under MGMT EFFICIENCY on the top. I want to compare these numbers to the averages in the specific industry as well as to the S&P500. Companies that have too little revenue or profit per employee may be out of control and be heading into a rough time. This isn’t an albatross, but it does give me some concerns. For instance, in the screen shot above, IBM is significantly lower than the industry as well as the S&P 500.

At this point, I can answer the inquisitor. On an email or Twitter response, it is usually not very definitive. For a quick look, I haven’t done the math to rate the stock as a Good Company, Fair Company or Poor Company. However, if my quick look is interesting, I will add it to my list of stocks to spend more time with and perhaps create an analysis here.

When I find a company that I like and have on my Watch List, I use my account on Fidelity to manage my investment. I am very open on my Disclaimer page that you can expect that I personally invest in companies that I find attractive. Other brokerage houses have similar tools that I am sure are quite good, but I really like Fidelity’s tools.  In a future post, I will write about what I do there. If you want to make sure that you don’t miss my posts, please follow me on Twitter (@ConfidentInvest), subscribe to the RSS feed of this site, or subscribe to the weekly digest email that is sent out on Monday.

Company name Liberty Property Trust
Stock ticker LRY
Live stock price [stckqut]LRY[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good
MANAGEMENT EXECUTION
Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good
ANALYSIS
Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $55.97
Target stock price (averages with growth) $71.41
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $69.89
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $44.59

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=lry

Liberty Property Trust (the Trust) is a self-administered and self-managed Maryland real estate investment trust (REIT). The Trust’s assets are owned directly or indirectly, and all of its operations are conducted directly or indirectly, by its subsidiary, Liberty Property Limited Partnership (the Operating Partnership). It provides leasing, property management, development, acquisition, and other tenant-related services for a portfolio of industrial and office properties, which are located within the Mid-Atlantic, Southeastern, Midwestern and Southwestern United States and the United Kingdom. During the year ended December 31, 2011, it acquired 21 properties comprising 4.2 million square feet. During 2011, it sold 62 operating properties containing an aggregate of 4.2 million square feet and 61 acres of land. On April 3, 2012, it sold 49 properties totaling 2.5 million square feet of space in Wisconsin, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina and New Jersey.

Confident Investor comments: This is one of the few REITs that I have found that I like. At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

John Snow is a former Secretary of the Treasury. Anyone who has had that job is a far better predictor of the economy and how it will affect your personal portfolio than just about any writer.  Mr. Snow recently wrote an opinion in the Wall Street Journal about the affect of future taxes on the economy and the stock market.  His opinion is entitled “‘Taxmaggedon’ Is a Real Threat” and it is very enlightening.

I won’t reproduce the entire article here but I thought that these 4 points were worth repeating. These four points are his advice to policy makers and are reproduced from his commentary.

  1. First, remember the principle that you always get less of anything you tax. For this reason, society discourages undesirable activities by imposing so-called "sin" taxes. By the same token, high marginal tax rates discourage work, risk-taking and capital formation.
  2. Second, tax rates should be held as low as possible, consistent with maintaining fiscal balance. Low tax rates are not in conflict with fiscal sanity if the rate of government spending as a fraction of gross domestic product is reduced, or if the tax base is broadened with more fundamental tax reforms. It is encouraging to see so much interest gathering in support of changes to the tax code that would scrap many special tax breaks in favor of deeply lower marginal tax rates.
  3. Third, marginal tax rates should be as neutral as possible across different types of economic activities. Otherwise the tax code distorts behavior in ways that sap economic strength, as market participants rely less on market price signals and more on government commands to decide how economic resources are used. Social engineering through the tax code comes at a very high cost.
  4. Finally, policy makers should remember to "do no harm." A reversion to the kind of drastically higher marginal tax rates that existed in the past would be bad enough. It would only add insult to injury to use the economic crisis as an excuse to raise the tax burden on capital formation and thus reduce the lifeblood of America’s job creators.

It is my belief as a Confident Investor that whenever things change dramatically, the repercussions are difficult to predict. It is like dropping a rock into the smooth surface of a puddle. You know that there are going to be ripples but you really don’t know all of the splashing that is going to occur and what else is going to get wet.

If tax law significantly changes, you should be cautious with your principal and perhaps hoard more cash for the short term. You can always start to invest again when the market stabilizes and the ripples are gone.