Historical test of $SAM results in 27.0% increase in profit

In a 7 year time frame from January 3, 2006 to December 31, 2012, Boston Beer [stckqut]SAM[/stckqut] increased 433.4% if you would have implemented a pure buy-and-hold strategy. If you would implemented the strategy that I explain in my book, The Confident Investor, you would have seen a 550.6% return on your investment. This is a 27.0% increase on the profit percentage.

To put it into actual dollars, suppose you invested $10,000 in SAM on 1/3/2006. With the system that is explained in The Confident Investor, you would have exited the market on 12/31/2012 with $77,006.32. With my system, it is not uncommon for you to need a bit more cash available to cover the ongoing trades. Therefore, rather than $10,000, you would have needed $11,836.98. You would have 502 shares which were purchased with other people’s money and still have your original $10,000.

To be fair in our comparison, the buy-and-hold method if calculated with $11,836.98 would have ended up with $63,136.04 and a respectable 433.4%. You would have purchased 473 shares but your original $11,836.98 would be tied up in the stock.

The profit on the buy-and-hold strategy in this scenario is $51,299.72.  The profit using GOPM (Grow on Other People’s Money) is $65,170.64.  That means the increased profit on SAM in this time frame was $13,870.92. This means your profit INCREASED by 27.0%!!

Understanding buy-and-hold is easy. You have a given amount of money, in this case $11,836.98. You buy 473 shares at the start of the test period. At the end of the test period, you sell the shares and the profit (or loss) is the standard that any other system must beat.

Understanding GOPM is a bit more complicated without reading my book, The Confident Investor. Before you even start to invest, the system teaches you to look for incredibly well-run companies and only invest in those companies. While SAM may or may not have qualified for this status in 2006, it does in 2013 so we are simply back-testing against a currently well-run company. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future performance, it is probably the best tool that we have to understand investment methodologies.

After you find a well-run company, you are going to buy $10,000 worth of shares when the technical indicators tell you that the stock has upward momentum. You are then going to sell those shares when that momentum slows down or reverses.  The profit that you make on that transaction, you will keep in the stock (in other words, you are not going to sell those shares). You are going to keep the $10,000 ready for when the stock has the correct momentum. If there is any excess profit (e.g. less than the value of a full share after keeping the $10,000) you will just stick that into your money-market account in this example. It is possible that you could invest this excess amount but we are going to simplify this example and just hold that money.

As a quick example, you invest $10,000 in a stock trading at $50 per share so you have purchased 200 shares.  Over the course of the next several days or weeks, the stock price increases to $55 which is where you decide to sell. To get your original capital of $10,000 back, you sell 182 shares resulting in $10,010 in your account and 18 shares that are essentially free since they were purchased with Other People’s Money. You now have your original capital of $10,000, 18 free shares and an additional $10.

Using this technique, you will make several trades per year and may even be trading weekly. Therefore, to make this model fair, I need to account for stockbroker fees and commissions.  In this example, I am using $8 for every sell and for every purchase. You may have a better fee from your favorite broker but $8 seems fair for a test. Frankly, if you are paying more than $10 for each transaction then you probably need to be looking at another broker!

Using this technique, by the end of the test on 12/31/2012 you would have 502 shares of SAM that cost you $1,836.32. Those 502 shares were acquired for $3.658 per share! This is significantly cheaper than today’s stock price and no matter what happens to SAM you could probably sell these shares for a profit at any time! You would still have the original $10,000 in your bank account! This is because you have purchased these share with Other People’s Money.  This is why I call my system GOPM – Grow on Other People’s Money.

If you would have invested in Boston Beer as described in this article, you would have doubled your investment by August 14, 2009. By that date, you would have acquired 255 shares of SAM which were valued at about $39.78 for a total profit of $10,142.63. This means your $10,000 initial investment would have doubled.

The rest of this article shows each buy and sell transaction for those 7 years. It shows the date, the assumed purchase price on that day (taken from Yahoo – the purchase price is the average of the opening and closing price on that day) and the profit or loss. If you haven’t read my book, The Confident Investor, then you may not understand the timing of the trades. In fact, if you haven’t purchased the book and registered here on this site as a book owner then you won’t be able to see those individual trades. If you have registered and cannot see the trades, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.

Which brings me to the big set of questions. Shouldn’t you own this book? Does your investment strategy beat buy-and-hold? Do you even have an investment strategy? If your strategy beats buy-and-hold, does it beat GOPM – Growing on Other People’s Money?

You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in ebook formats for Nook, Kindle, and iPad. It may be available at your favorite bookstore as well but you may have to ask.

SAM 6 year chart from Google Finance

SAM chart


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Description of SAM trades table

While it may be obvious the meaning of the various columns, some of them definitely need a bit of explanation if you have never walked through a trading analysis with me.

Date – The date of the trade. It is important to note the long delays between trades. This will help you with your portfolio since you do not have to dedicate your average trade purchase (in this case $10,000) to just one stock but rather you can invest that money in the hottest stock at the time.

Buy/Sell – This is probably pretty obvious. On this date, did the system buy or sell the stock? The SELL will only sell from the previous transaction’s BUY.

Purch. Price – The selling or buying price of this transaction. This is taken from Yahoo’s Historical Pricing page and it is the average of the opening and closing price on that day.

Shares purchased – The number of shares that $10,000 will buy on that day.

Invested – The amount that was actually purchased. This is the number of shares (the previous column) multiplied by the Purch. Price column.

Returned – When you sell the shares from the previous BUY, the amount of money that results.

Profit/Loss – How much was profited from the previous BUY.

Free shares – If the SELL was profitable, how many shares was evenly divides into this profit.  These are free shares as they were purchased with Other People’s Money.

Excess – After the Free Shares are taken out, how much money is left over. If the transaction was not profitable, then what was the loss.

Running investment balance – A running total of the value of the investment.


SAM trades table

 

Date Action Purchase price Shares purchased Invested Returned Profit / Loss Free shares Excess Running investment balance
01/19/06 BUY 26.055 383 9979.065 0
01/25/06 SELL 26.03 9961.49 -17.575 -17.575 -17.575
02/15/06 BUY 26.12 382 9977.84 -17.575
02/22/06 SELL 25.875 9876.25 -101.59 -101.59 -119.165
02/27/06 BUY 25.93 385 9983.05 -119.165
03/06/06 SELL 26.275 10107.875 124.825 4 19.725 -99.44
03/08/06 BUY 26.525 376 9973.4 -99.44
03/16/06 SELL 26.935 10119.56 146.16 5 11.485 -87.955
03/23/06 BUY 27.205 367 9984.235 -87.955
03/27/06 SELL 26.905 9866.135 -118.1 -118.1 -206.055
04/05/06 BUY 27.23 366 9966.18 -206.055
04/10/06 SELL 26.92 9844.72 -121.46 -121.46 -327.515
04/19/06 BUY 27.27 366 9980.82 -327.515
04/27/06 SELL 27.1 9910.6 -70.22 -70.22 -397.735
05/03/06 BUY 27.24 366 9969.84 -397.735
05/08/06 SELL 27.095 9908.77 -61.07 -61.07 -458.805
05/31/06 BUY 26.82 372 9977.04 -458.805
06/05/06 SELL 26.71 9928.12 -48.92 -48.92 -507.725
06/20/06 BUY 27.04 369 9977.76 -507.725
07/13/06 SELL 29.005 10694.845 717.085 24 20.965 -486.76
07/31/06 BUY 29.09 343 9977.87 -486.76
08/29/06 SELL 31.54 10810.22 832.35 26 12.31 -474.45
09/15/06 BUY 33.625 297 9986.625 -474.45
09/22/06 SELL 33.51 9944.47 -42.155 -42.155 -516.605
10/11/06 BUY 33.1 301 9963.1 -516.605
11/01/06 SELL 36.01 10831.01 867.91 24 3.67 -512.935
11/22/06 BUY 35.71 279 9963.09 -512.935
11/28/06 SELL 35.695 9950.905 -12.185 -12.185 -525.12
11/29/06 BUY 35.785 279 9984.015 -525.12
12/15/06 SELL 36.465 10165.735 181.72 4 35.86 -489.26
03/20/07 BUY 34.315 291 9985.665 -489.26
03/28/07 SELL 33.62 9775.42 -210.245 -210.245 -699.505
05/08/07 BUY 34.2 292 9986.4 -699.505
06/07/07 SELL 38.09 11114.28 1127.88 29 23.27 -676.235
06/14/07 BUY 39.63 252 9986.76 -676.235
06/22/07 SELL 39.255 9884.26 -102.5 -102.5 -778.735
07/03/07 BUY 40.19 248 9967.12 -778.735
07/18/07 SELL 41.155 10198.44 231.32 5 25.545 -753.19
08/02/07 BUY 42.275 236 9976.9 -753.19
08/14/07 SELL 43.99 10373.64 396.74 9 0.83 -752.36
08/17/07 BUY 46.75 213 9957.75 -752.36
09/07/07 SELL 47.21 10047.73 89.98 1 42.77 -709.59
09/19/07 BUY 47.185 211 9956.035 -709.59
09/21/07 SELL 47.33 9978.63 22.595 0 22.595 -686.995
09/28/07 BUY 48.83 204 9961.32 -686.995
10/19/07 SELL 52.72 10746.88 785.56 14 47.48 -639.515
02/04/08 BUY 37.695 265 9989.175 -639.515
02/15/08 SELL 37.235 9859.275 -129.9 -129.9 -769.415
02/27/08 BUY 37.27 268 9988.36 -769.415
07/08/08 SELL 41.06 243 9977.58 -769.415
07/15/08 BUY 40.86 9920.98 -56.6 -56.6 -826.015
07/21/08 SELL 41.69 239 9963.91 -826.015
08/04/08 BUY 44.845 10709.955 746.045 16 28.525 -797.49
08/12/08 SELL 45.475 219 9959.025 -797.49
08/20/08 BUY 45.045 9856.855 -102.17 -102.17 -899.66
09/16/08 SELL 45.3 220 9966 -899.66
10/01/08 BUY 46.795 10286.9 320.9 6 40.13 -859.53
04/08/09 SELL 22.955 435 9985.425 -859.53
05/28/09 BUY 28.24 12276.4 2290.975 81 3.535 -855.995
06/03/09 SELL 29.525 338 9979.45 -855.995
06/10/09 BUY 29.48 9956.24 -23.21 -23.21 -879.205
06/25/09 SELL 29.06 343 9967.58 -879.205
07/07/09 BUY 29.74 10192.82 225.24 7 17.06 -862.145
07/15/09 SELL 29.89 334 9983.26 -862.145
07/17/09 BUY 29.825 9953.55 -29.71 -29.71 -891.855
07/23/09 SELL 29.81 335 9986.35 -891.855
08/28/09 BUY 40.09 13422.15 3435.8 85 28.15 -863.705
10/21/09 SELL 38.76 257 9961.32 -863.705
10/28/09 BUY 39.095 10039.415 78.095 1 39 -824.705
11/06/09 SELL 39.855 250 9963.75 -824.705
12/07/09 BUY 42.97 10734.5 770.75 17 40.26 -784.445
12/18/09 SELL 45.175 221 9983.675 -784.445
01/15/10 BUY 48.32 10670.72 687.045 14 10.565 -773.88
02/18/10 SELL 47.185 211 9956.035 -773.88
03/12/10 BUY 49.975 10536.725 580.69 11 30.965 -742.915
03/23/10 SELL 52.165 191 9963.515 -742.915
04/26/10 BUY 57.01 10880.91 917.395 16 5.235 -737.68
05/11/10 SELL 58.79 169 9935.51 -737.68
05/20/10 BUY 58.665 9906.385 -29.125 -29.125 -766.805
05/27/10 SELL 63.295 157 9937.315 -766.805
06/22/10 BUY 72.565 11384.705 1447.39 19 68.655 -698.15
07/09/10 SELL 69.74 143 9972.82 -698.15
07/15/10 BUY 69.48 9927.64 -45.18 -45.18 -743.33
07/23/10 SELL 70.51 141 9941.91 -743.33
07/29/10 BUY 70.65 9953.65 11.74 0 11.74 -731.59
09/08/10 SELL 67.475 148 9986.3 -731.59
09/22/10 BUY 67.965 10050.82 64.52 0 64.52 -667.07
10/15/10 SELL 68.59 145 9945.55 -667.07
12/29/10 BUY 97.255 14093.975 4148.425 42 63.715 -603.355
02/04/11 SELL 93.055 107 9956.885 -603.355
02/09/11 BUY 92.3 9868.1 -88.785 -88.785 -692.14
02/15/11 SELL 93.925 106 9956.05 -692.14
02/22/11 BUY 94.325 9990.45 34.4 0 34.4 -657.74
03/03/11 SELL 94.3 105 9901.5 -657.74
03/09/11 BUY 88.45 9279.25 -622.25 -622.25 -1279.99
03/31/11 SELL 91.99 108 9934.92 -1279.99
04/08/11 BUY 92.065 9935.02 0.1 0 0.1 -1279.89
04/19/11 SELL 91.9 108 9925.2 -1279.89
05/02/11 BUY 93.52 10092.16 166.96 1 73.44 -1206.45
06/21/11 SELL 87.17 114 9937.38 -1206.45
07/27/11 BUY 90.955 10360.87 423.49 4 59.67 -1146.78
10/10/11 SELL 83.11 120 9973.2 -1146.78
11/15/11 BUY 98.385 11798.2 1825 18 54.07 -1092.71
12/01/11 SELL 100.265 99 9926.235 -1092.71
01/03/12 BUY 107.29 10613.71 687.475 6 43.735 -1048.975
02/06/12 SELL 104.615 95 9938.425 -1048.975
02/09/12 BUY 102.715 9749.925 -188.5 -188.5 -1237.475
02/22/12 SELL 102.55 97 9947.35 -1237.475
03/22/12 BUY 100.135 99 9913.365 -1237.475
04/04/12 SELL 104.075 10295.425 382.06 3 69.835 -1167.64
05/02/12 BUY 107.215 93 9970.995 -1167.64
05/16/12 SELL 105.825 9833.725 -137.27 -137.27 -1304.91
06/06/12 BUY 106.64 93 9917.52 -1304.91
07/09/12 SELL 118.135 10978.555 1061.035 8 115.955 -1188.955
09/28/12 BUY 112.535 88 9903.08 -1188.955
10/01/12 SELL 108.25 9518 -385.08 -385.08 -1574.035
10/19/12 BUY 109.195 91 9936.745 -1574.035
10/22/12 SELL 107.855 9806.805 -129.94 -129.94 -1703.975
11/02/12 BUY 113.79 87 9899.73 -1703.975
11/12/12 SELL 112.045 9739.915 -159.815 -159.815 -1863.79
12/14/12 BUY 131.19 76 9970.44 -1863.79
12/27/12 SELL 135.215 10268.34 297.9 2 27.47 -1836.32

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