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Company name AMCON Distributing Co.
Stock ticker DIT
Live stock price [stckqut]DIT[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Poor

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $81.29
Target stock price (averages with growth) $64.86
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $43.08
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $81.45

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=dit

AMCON Distributing Company (AMCON) operates in two segments: wholesale distribution segment (Wholesale Segment) and retail health food segment (Retail Segment). The Company’s Wholesale Segment distributes consumer products in the Central, Rocky Mountain, and Southern regions of the United States. Its retail health food segment (Retail Segment) operates 14 health food retail stores located throughout the Midwest and Florida. During the fiscal year ended September 30, 2012 (fiscal 2012), sales of cigarettes represented 73% of the Company’s consolidated revenue. During fiscal 2012, sales of candy, beverages, food service, groceries, health food products, paper products, health and beauty care products, and tobacco products represented approximately 27% of consolidated revenue.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in AMCON Distributing Co. as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $80.69

Growth: 0.1

Current EPS (TTM): $9.05

P/E: 9

Future EPS Calc: $14.57

Future Stock Price Calc: $131.17

Target stock price: $81.45

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

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Strategy

successful investment strategy

An example of this successful investment strategy will help you better understand. You buy 100 shares of a company at $40. It costs $10 in stock broker commission, so you spent $4010. Over the course of a few months, the stock rises to $44. Your investment is now worth $4400. The indicators make you believe that this company will have a short term pullback in its stock price, so you want to sit back while the market moves. However, you still want your money to work for you at this great company. You sell your initial investment only ($4,010) plus the selling commission of $10. $4020 divided by $44 means 92 shares (or a net of $4,048). Your principle is safe (plus the $28) and you have 8 shares in this great company. These 8 shares were bought with Other People’s Money.

Eventually, the indicators show that you should buy in again. Perhaps this new level is $43. You reinvest your $4,048 minus $10 commission and buy 93 shares with $39 left over. You now own 101 shares for your original $4,000 investment for an average price of $39.60. You have bought these shares at a discount of $4.40 per share. In addition, you have $39 in your money-market account at the broker making money at market rate interest.

Using this technique as part of a successful investment strategy on a great company, slowly over time, your investment will grow. Your downside risk will be minimized (although with all investing, your risk is never minimized to zero).

Typically, I do not use technical trading tools to sell the shares that I buy on Other People’s Money. I only sell those shares when the fundamentals of the company start to turn from Fair to Poor or when the stock has appreciated to the point that I see little upside. Otherwise, these are lifetime investments because I have not spent any money to acquire them.

I cannot leave this subject a successful investment strategy without a reminder for you to be cautious with your earnings. Try to avoid greed and hope for a small return on your money. When you are concerned that the market has moved against you and the indicators all look like they are going to give you a sell signal soon, go ahead and lock in your profit. There is no shame in being cautious and profitable as you work your successful investment strategy.

Image courtesy of Stuart Miles at FreeDigitalPhotos.net

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Company name Apache Corporation
Stock ticker APA
Live stock price [stckqut]APA[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $133.27
Target stock price (averages with growth) $108.36
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $64.32
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $107.8

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=apa

Apache Corporation (Apache) is an independent energy company, which explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2011, Apache had exploration and production interests in six countries: the United States, Canada, Egypt, Australia, offshore the United Kingdom in the North Sea, and Argentina. During the year ended December 31, 2011, it participated in drilling 1,087 gross wells, with 1,005 completed as producers. As of December 31, 2011, in addition to its completed wells, several wells had not reached completion: 39 in the United States (28.44 net); 50 in Canada (42.69 net); 23 in Egypt (21.75 net); six in the North Sea (4.91 net); one in Australia (0.33 net), and three in Argentina (3.00 net). In November 2013, the Company sold one-third minority participation in its Egypt oil and gas business to Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Apache Corporation.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $86.22

Growth: 0.15

Current EPS (TTM): $6.64

P/E: 13

Future EPS Calc: $13.35

Future Stock Price Calc: $173.62

Target stock price: $107.8

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

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Company name Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc.
Stock ticker TAST
Live stock price [stckqut]TAST[/stckqut]
Confident Investor Rating Poor

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=tast

Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. (Carrols Restaurant Group) is a holding company and conducts all of its operations through its direct and indirect subsidiaries. The Company is a restaurant company in the United States operating three restaurant brands in the quick-casual and quick-service restaurant segments with 547 restaurants located in 17 states as of January 1, 2012. Through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Fiesta Restaurant Group., the Company owns and operates two restaurant brands, Pollo Tropical and Taco Cabana. The Company is also a Burger King franchisee, based on the number of restaurants. As of January 1, 2012, its company owned restaurants included 91 Pollo Tropical restaurants and 158 Taco Cabana restaurants, and it owned and operated 298 Burger King restaurants under franchise agreements. In May 2012, the Company acquired 278 BURGER KING restaurants from Burger King Corporation.
Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. It is not possible to confidently invest in a company that is not currently profitable.
If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

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Company name Mastercard Inc
Stock ticker MA
Live stock price [stckqut]MA[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $1285.82
Target stock price (averages with growth) $2410.71
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $2359.6
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $1135.68

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ma

MasterCard Incorporated (MasterCard) is a global payments and technology company that connects consumers, financial institutions, merchants, Governments and businesses worldwide, enabling them to use electronic forms of payment instead of cash and checks. The Company offers a range of payment solutions that enable its customers and partners to develop and implement credit, debit, prepaid and related payment programs for their customers. Its customers and partners include financial institutions and other entities that act as issuers and acquirers, merchants, Government entities, telecommunications companies and other businesses. MasterCard manages a family of payment brands, including MasterCard, Maestro and Cirrus, which the Company license to its customers for use in their payment programs and solutions. On April 15, 2011, MasterCard acquired the prepaid card program management operations of Travelex Holdings Ltd., since renamed Access Prepaid Worldwide.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Mastercard Inc as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $832.42

Growth: 0.17

Current EPS (TTM): $25.28

P/E: 33

Future EPS Calc: $55.42

Future Stock Price Calc: $1829.02

Target stock price: $1135.68

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]