Ultra Petroleum Corp. ($UPL) Cautious Buy or Hold to $45 Confident Investor Rating: Fair

Company name Ultra Petroleum Corp.
Stock ticker UPL
Live stock price [stckqut]UPL[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Poor

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $46.08
Target stock price (averages with growth) $71.33
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $64.43
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $36.54

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=upl

Ultra Petroleum Corp. (Ultra) is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and natural gas properties. The Company’s operations are primarily located in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming and the north-central Pennsylvania area of the Appalachian Basin. Ultra’s operations in southwest Wyoming are focused on developing its natural gas reserves in a tight gas sand trend located in the Green River Basin with targets in the sands of the upper Cretaceous Lance Pool in the Pinedale and Jonah fields. As of December 31, 2012, Ultra owned interests in approximately 84,000 gross (49,000 net) acres in Wyoming covering approximately 190 square miles. In December 2012, CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust, Inc acquired a liquids gathering system (LGS) from Ultra. Effective December 12, 2013, Ultra Petroleum Corp acquired an undisclosed oil and gas producing properties, located in Uinta Basin.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Ultra Petroleum Corp. as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Ultra Petroleum Corp. calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
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In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $29.81
  • Growth: 0.15
  • Current EPS (TTM): $2.09
  • P/E: 14
  • Future EPS Calc: $4.2
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $58.85
  • Target stock price: $36.54

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

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