By:
On:
In: Fair company, Stock analysis
Tagged:
With: 0 Comments

Company name Alliance Data Systems Corporation
Stock ticker ADS
Live stock price [stckqut]ADS[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $443.12
Target stock price (averages with growth) $443.47
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $201.14
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $395.23

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ads

Alliance Data Systems Corporation is a provider of transaction-based, data-driven marketing and loyalty solutions serving consumer-based businesses in a variety of industries. Its products and services operate under three segments: LoyaltyOne, Epsilon and Private Label Services and Credit. The Company offers a portfolio of integrated outsourced marketing solutions, including customer loyalty programs, database marketing services, marketing strategy consulting, analytics and creative services, direct marketing services and private label and co-brand retail credit card programs. Its client base spans across a range of end-markets, including financial services, specialty retail, grocery and drugstore chains, petroleum retail, automotive, hospitality and travel, telecommunications and pharmaceuticals. Conversant LLC is the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Alliance Data Systems Corporation as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns. I have decided to leave this stock on my Watch List for a little longer, in the hopes that some of the fundamentals will improve.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Alliance Data Systems Corporation calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $286.61
  • Growth: 0.175
  • Current EPS (TTM): $8.12
  • P/E: 35
  • Future EPS Calc: $18.18
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $636.52
  • Target stock price: $395.23

[/s2If]
I hope that this makes you a Confident Investor.