Company name LaCrosse Footwear, Inc.
Stock ticker BOOT
Live stock price [stckqut]BOOT[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good
MANAGEMENT EXECUTION
Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Poor
ANALYSIS
Confident Investor Rating Poor
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $6.7
Target stock price (averages with growth) $9.59
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $10.12
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $12.68

“LaCrosse Footwear, Inc. (LaCrosse) is a developer and marketer of footwear
for work and outdoor users. The Company’s Danner and LaCrosse brands are
distributed domestically through a nationwide network of retailers and
distributors, and internationally through its Danish subsidiary, LaCrosse
Europe ApS, and through distributors and retailers in Asia, Europe and
Canada. Its work customers include people in law enforcement,
transportation, mining, oil and gas, military services and other
occupations. Outdoor customers include people active in hunting, hiking and
other outdoor recreational activities. On May 8, 2009, the Company announced
the formation of Environmentally Neutral Design Outdoor, Inc. (END). ”

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

Insurance makes sense on the big things in life, like your house or your health. The cost of fixing either can be astronomical. But the pain of repairing consumer electronics—even pricey ones like a laptop—is still relatively limited.

Extended gadget insurance plans are only worth it for niche cases, like people with an extremely advanced case of klutziness. Insurance programs like AppleCare can also be helpful to those who need always-on-call phone tech support, beyond the great free service Apple offers.

Yet for most of us, here’s a better plan from Richard Thaler, a renowned economist at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business: “Every time someone offers to sell you insurance on a non-large purchase say no, and take that money and put it into a rainy-day account. With any luck, there will be plenty of money in that account the next time you drop your iPhone.”

A few data points nod to the risks. Smartphones that live in back pockets and sweaty palms are perhaps more vulnerable to accidental destruction than TVs and laptops. A repair firm called iCracked that offers an insurance program told me that 20% of customers with an iPhone 6 crack the screen within a year of buying. SquareTrade, another warranty insurance firm, says a third of its mobile phone customers file a claim at some point. A good case would likely reduce your risk, but I’ve not seen any data on the subject.

Consumer Reports, which generally recommends avoiding extended warranty insurance plans, says only 15% of buyers got a new phone because the old one broke, and only 2% because it was lost or stolen, based on a reader survey.

If you do crack your phone, many warranties don’t look like a great deal when you tally the cost of a fix. Any iPhone owner can walk into an Apple store or authorized repair center and have an iPhone 6 screen fixed for $109. You might have to wait, but there’s no extended warranty insurance required.

So, who might actually benefit from an add-on warranty insurance?

  1. The seriously accident-prone
  2. Those needing extra help
  3. Time-sensitive people (Just know what you’re buying isn’t as much a warranty as it is a luxury).

Source: Why Gadget Warranties Are (Almost) Never Worth It

Company name Deckers Outdoor Corp
Stock ticker DECK
Live stock price [stckqut]DECK[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Fair
P/E growth Fair
EBIT growth Fair

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $76.87
Target stock price (averages with growth) $69.9
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $37.88
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $75.5

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=deck

Deckers Outdoor Corporation is engaged in designing, marketing and distributing footwear, apparel and accessories developed for both everyday casual lifestyle use and high performance activities. The Company markets its products under three brands: UGG, Teva, and Sanuk. The UGG brand provides a line of footwear, with product offerings to women, men and children. Teva is its active lifestyle brand. The Teva product line includes casual sandals, shoes, boots and amphibious footwear. Sanuk is lifestyle footwear brand. The Sanuk brand is known for the SIDEWALK SURFERS shoe. Other primary offerings include the Beer Cozy and Yoga Mat sandal collections made from yoga mat material. In addition to its primary brands, the Company’s other brands include TSUBO, a line of mid and high-end dress and dress casual footwear; Ahnu, a line of outdoor performance and lifestyle footwear; MOZO, a line of footwear crafted for culinary professionals; Hoka, a line of footwear for all capacities of runners.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Deckers Outdoor Corp as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns. I am leaving the company on my Watch List but may take it off in the future if performance doesn’t improve.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Deckers Outdoor Corp calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $74.26
  • Growth: 0.11
  • Current EPS (TTM): $4.51
  • P/E: 16
  • Future EPS Calc: $7.59
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $121.59
  • Target stock price: $75.5

[/s2If]
I hope that this makes you a Confident Investor.

Company name Zumiez Inc.
Stock ticker ZUMZ
Live stock price [stckqut]ZUMZ[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $32.91
Target stock price (averages with growth) $51.67
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $49.93
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $32.92

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=zumz

Zumiez Inc. (Zumiez) is a specialty retailer of action sports related apparel, footwear, equipment and accessories operating under the Zumiez brand name. As of January 28, 2012, the Company operated 434 stores in the United States and 10 stores in Canada. In addition, the Company operates a Website that sells merchandise online. At January 28, 2012, its stores averaged approximately 2,900 square feet. Its apparel offerings include tops, bottoms, outerwear and accessories, such as caps, bags and backpacks, belts, jewelry and sunglasses. Zumiez’s footwear offerings primarily consist of action sports related athletic shoes and sandals. Its equipment offerings, or hardgoods, include skateboards, snowboards and ancillary gear, such as boots and bindings. The Company also offers a selection of other items, such as miscellaneous novelties.
Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Zumiez Inc. as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Zumiez Inc. calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $27.32
  • Growth: 0.14
  • Current EPS (TTM): $1.53
  • P/E: 18
  • Future EPS Calc: $2.94
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $53.02
  • Target stock price: $32.92

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]