In his latest blog post for the Brookings Institution, the former Federal Reserve chair said the easy-money policies deployed during his tenure at the central bank have arguably only returned stock prices to “normal” levels.

Mr. Bernanke crunched the numbers and found that the S&P 500 rose by about 1.2% each quarter from the end of the 2001 recession through the fourth quarter of 2007–the pre-crisis business cycle peak. If the S&P had continued to climb by that same rate, Mr. Bernanke’s math tells him the S&P 500 would have sat at about 2123 in the first quarter of this year. That’s three points above its first-quarter top of 2120 in February and 55 points higher than where the index finished the first three months of the year at 2068.

While the former Fed head says there are of course many ways to calculate the normal level of stock prices, he thinks most would lead to a similar conclusion.

Source: Janet Who? Ben Bernanke Says Stocks Aren’t Expensive

Company name Republic Airways Holdings Inc.
Stock ticker RJET
Live stock price [stckqut]RJET[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Poor

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Poor
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $8.87
Target stock price (averages with growth) $10.5
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $9.06
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $10.71

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=rjet

Republic Airways Holdings Inc. is a holding company. The Company offers scheduled passenger services through its wholly-owned operating air carrier subsidiaries: Chautauqua Airlines, Inc. (Chautauqua), Shuttle America Corporation (Shuttle), Republic Airline Inc. (Republic Airline) and Frontier Airlines, Inc. (Frontier). As of December 31, 2011, its operating subsidiaries offered scheduled passenger service on 1,483 flights daily to 132 cities in 42 states, Canada, Mexico, and Costa Rica under Frontier operations as Frontier and through fixed-fee code-share agreements with AMR Corp., the parent of American Airlines, Inc. (American), Continental Airlines, Inc. (Continental), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (Delta), United Air Lines, Inc. (United), and US Airways, Inc. (US Airways). The Company took delivery of eight A320 aircraft, two E190 aircraft, placed into service three A319 aircraft, sold five A318 aircraft, four of which have remained in the fleet under sale leaseback agreements.

 

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.
For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $12.19

Growth: 0.07

Current EPS (TTM): $1.23

P/E: 10

Future EPS Calc: $1.72

Future Stock Price Calc: $17.25

Target stock price: $10.71

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

Company name Ebix Inc
Stock ticker EBIX
Live stock price [stckqut]EBIX[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Fair
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $30.43
Target stock price (averages with growth) $43.68
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $31.83
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $26.82

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ebix

Ebix, Inc. (Ebix) is an international supplier of software and e-commerce solutions to the insurance industry. Ebix provides a series of application software products for the insurance industry ranging from carrier systems, agency systems and exchanges to custom software development for all entities involved in the insurance and financial industries. As of December 31, 2011, approximately 77% of Ebix revenues came from on-demand insurance Exchanges. On February 7, 2011 Ebix merged with ADAM, Inc. (ADAM) with a wholly owned subsidiary of Ebix. On November 15, 2011, Ebix acquired Health Connect Systems, Inc. (Health Connect). On June 8, 2012, the Company acquired PlanetSoft, Inc. In June 2012, the Company acquired Fintechnix. In August 2012, the Company acquired TriSystems Ltd., a online insurance trading hub that facilitates commercial insurance and reinsurance transactions between London intermediaries and insurance companies.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

Much of what you read and hear from “experts” is that you should “Buy and Hold” stocks and have a fixed investment schedule. They recommend that you find a quality company (or mutual fund), buy fixed amounts of stock out of your paycheck every month, and hold that stock for quite some time (maybe even decades). As I pointed out in the example from my book, The Confident Investor, it is possible to improve on this expert advice.

The “Buy and Hold” and “invest regularly” philosophy seems easy. It also shows commitment to your favorite stocks, but it’s not the philosophy that the “experts” use when they buy a stock!

EXAMPLE: Warren Buffet is considered to be one of the smartest buyers of companies ever. In a two-week span at the end of September 2008, Mr. Buffet bought stock in General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS). He did not buy just a little bit; he invested billions of dollars in each company in return for a large percentage of those companies. If GE and GS were such great investments, why did not he just put a regular installment system in place to buy the stock? Of course, they made him a special deal for the investment, but that only proves that when the price is right, you need to act.

EXAMPLE: Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) acquired all of the stock of Skype in 2011. This acquisition did not happen slowly by Microsoft investing in the Skype stock every month until they owned it all. Rather, Microsoft went to Skype investors and offered to pay them more than the current market price of the company. They did this because they saw value in total ownership of the company immediately. Microsoft executives evidently felt that Microsoft would be more profitable by buying all of Skype at one time.

The pages of the Wall Street Journal and Investors Business Daily have stories almost every day of individuals and corporations buying substantial portions of a company. These are some of the brightest investors on the planet. They show by their actions that the prudent way to purchase stock is to find a company that is priced right and invest their cash in that company. So why should you listen to experts say to “buy and hold” on a regular basis, when many experienced investors make substantial investments?

This site and my book are dedicated to trying to give you a better methodology. If you really want to understand how to significantly increase your wealth, you should purchase my book, The Confident Investor. You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as AmazonBarnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in ebook formats for NookKindle, and iPad.

I have thousands of followers on Twitter. I value my conversations that I have with them. Many of my followers are fairly sophisticated investors but many followers are just getting started. I am open to anyone asking me questions on Twitter or here on this site and I will do my best to answer in a timely manner. Many of the questions that I am asked are fairly basic as the person is simply trying to get an understanding of how the market works.

This article is quite basic. If you are new to the stock market, it should offer some value to you.  If you are a more experienced investor you may want to simply pass it on to your less experienced friends.

In order to invest in the stock market, you should understand some basic concepts. The most fundamental of these is that someone must own any company. I will not get into the ethical or political discussion of whether the government or the private sector should own a company. For the purposes of this discussion, I assume that individuals are empowered to own the company.

Buying a company is similar to buying a lawnmower. If you would like to own a lawnmower for your yard, you would go to the stores in your community, evaluate the different mowers offered for sale, decide which features you need, and then buy the mower that best fits your needs and your budget. If you find two lawnmowers that were exactly the same, you would probably not pay double for one than you would for the other. You would purchase the lower-priced lawnmower, provided there was no difference in features and quality.

Similarly, if you decided to buy a company and you had an unlimited amount of money at your disposal, you would look at all of the companies on the market, figure out what features you wanted in the company, and then buy the most reasonably-priced company that had all of these features that you wanted.

When you buy a lawnmower, you go to a local store. To buy a company, you go to the stock market. If you look at the financial page of your newspaper, you will see rows and rows of listings for the stock prices of companies. These are all the companies that are for sale! The financial page is simply the “catalog” for companies that are for sale. When a company lists itself on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System (NASDAQ), it is simply saying that it is for sale.

The problem is that you probably cannot afford to buy an entire company. IBM, for example, is one of the most respected companies on the planet (although it is currently NOT on my Watch List) and currently on sale for well over 200 billion dollars! Even the richest person in the world today cannot write a check for that much money. So how do you own a company when you do not have nearly enough money to buy it all?

Each company is broken up into smaller pieces called shares. That name is essential to understand their purpose: you are going to share ownership of this company with others. These other owners, like yourself, are called shareholders.

Let’s use an example that may be close to your everyday situation. Let’s imagine that within easy driving distance from your home is a professional sports team named the Capitalists. You are a big fan of the Capitalists and think that their games are a lot of fun. You want to buy four season tickets to the games, for you, your spouse, and your kids. You discover that each season ticket is $1,000, which means that you would need to spend $4,000 for your family. You cannot afford $4,000, and were hoping to pay $1,000.

You could break the news to your family that they all cannot go together to the game and only buy the one seat that you can afford. This means that you go to one game out of four, your spouse to another one in four, and so on. This is not as much fun for everyone, so you decide not to buy the tickets.

You overhear a couple of your friends from work talking about the Capitalists. They wish they could see more games since they are so much fun to attend. You reach out to three of them and offer that each of you put up $1,000 each and share the four tickets. This way each family gets to see one game out of four.

Buying stock in a company is almost exactly the same as sharing the cost of sports seats. The difference is that you do not personally divide up the shares. Neither do you find the friends to go in with you on the purchase. That part is done for you when the company listed itself for sale on the stock exchange. All you have to do is figure out which company you want to buy and then you go to the store (NYSE or NASDAQ) and buy the number of shares (or percentage of the company) that you can personally afford.

You can learn more about the stock market and, more importantly, how to make money in the stock market by buying my book. You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as AmazonBarnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in ebook formats for NookKindle, and iPad.