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Company name Liberty Property Trust
Stock ticker LRY
Live stock price [stckqut]LRY[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $60.01
Target stock price (averages with growth) $71.53
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $59.26
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $48.41

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=lry

Liberty Property Trust (the Trust) is a self-administered and self-managed Maryland real estate investment trust (REIT). Substantially all of the Trust’s assets are owned directly or indirectly, and substantially all of the Trust’s operations are conducted directly or indirectly, by its subsidiary, Liberty Property Limited Partnership, a limited partnership. The Trust provides leasing, property management, development and other tenant-related services for the Properties. The industrial Properties consist of warehouse, distribution, service, assembly, light manufacturing and research and development facilities. The Trust’s office Properties are multi-story and single-story office buildings located principally in suburban mixed-use developments or office parks. In March 2013, it sold the property at 8800 Tinicum Boulevard in Philadelphia. In May 2013, the Company acquired 2100 M Street NW, a 290,762 square foot, eight-story office building in Washington, D.C.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

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While you are enjoying the beginning of summer with a 3-day weekend. Please do not forget why you are not working today.

Remember those who served. All gave some and some gave all they had.

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Company name Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Stock ticker CMG
Live stock price [stckqut]CMG[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Fair
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $567.72
Target stock price (averages with growth) $774.03
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $531.09
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $469.45

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=cmg

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. and its subsidiaries (Chipotle) operate restaurants throughout the United States, as well as two restaurants in Toronto, Canada and two in London, England. As of December 31, 2011, Chipotle operated 1,230 restaurants, which includes one ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen. The Company’s restaurants serve a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. The Company manages its operations and restaurants based on six regions that all report into a single segment. As of December 31, 2011, the Company delivered ingredients and other supplies to its restaurants from 22 independently owned and operated regional distribution centers. Chipotle categorizes its restaurants as either end-caps (at the end of a line of retail outlets), in-lines (in a line of retail outlets), free-standing or other.

 

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns. I am taking Chipotle off of my Watch List.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

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Company name Buffalo Wild Wings
Stock ticker BWLD
Live stock price [stckqut]BWLD[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Fair
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $147.41
Target stock price (averages with growth) $197.27
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $130.58
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $118.47

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=bwld

Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. is an owner, operator and franchisor of restaurants featuring a variety of menu items, including its Buffalo, New York-style chicken wings spun in any of its 14 signature sauces or four signature seasonings. Its restaurants create an atmosphere that includes a multi-media system, a full bar and an open layout, which appeals to sports fans and families alike. Its guests have the option of watching sporting events or other programs on its projection screens and approximately 50 additional televisions, competing in Buzztime Trivia, or playing video games. The open layout of its restaurants offers dining and bar areas that provide seating choices for sports fans and families. Its menu features traditional chicken wings, boneless wings, and other items, including chicken tenders, Wild Flatbreads, popcorn shrimp, specialty hamburgers and sandwiches, wraps, Buffalito soft tacos, appetizers and salads. Effective March 19, 2013, it acquired Pie Square Holdings LLC.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

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Most of the stock that is traded on the market is bought and sold by large institutional investors. At some point in the future, I will explain those ominous institutional investors and why they exist and where they get their money. If you want get an update when that article is published, you can simply follow me on Twitter at @ConfidentInvest, subscribe to my RSS feed, or subscribe to my weekly aggregation newsletter.

These institutional investors are not immune from the herd mentality of the market. In fact, they often drive it! They tend to be very susceptible to market analysts that put a rating on a particular stock such as Buy, Hold, Sell (or one of the other less obvious ratings). They also tend to give a lot of credence to target market pricing that is published by analysts.

The biggest disadvantage of the large institutional investors is simply their size! Their second disadvantage is their report to their investors. A quick discussion of these two points is relevant:

  1. One of the largest investment funds (i.e. mutual fund) is The Growth Fund of America (AGTHX). This fund has approximately 115 BILLION dollars under management!  This is larger than the GDP of a small country like Bangladesh or Morocco! When the fund managers are working with a portfolio this large they have massive investments in any one stock. In fact, according to their 2012 Annual Report their largest holding was $4.8B in Apple [stckqut]AAPL[/stckqut] and now, according to their site, Apple doesn’t make the top ten. When the managers liquidated this stock, they didn’t do it in one order – they had to do it over time. In fact, it is possible that the liquidation of this stock actually drove the stock price down so as they sold more shares, they were selling at lower and lower prices.
  2. The second point that is a disadvantage to mutual fund operators is the focus they get on publishing their largest holdings. If you saw a fund that had 5% of its money in Apple over the last 3-4 months wouldn’t you question the manager’s logic? This means that they are constantly under scrutiny on their top investments. A potential investor may disqualify AGTHX if they see Apple at the top of the list. The manager may think that it is time to buy Apple but the risk of the holdings report means that the investment has to be considered wise within the reporting period of the fund.

The advantage to you, an individual investor, is that you can quickly and efficiently buy or sell stock in any company. You can also take advantage of the herd mentality of the entire investment community: you can buy stocks when they have irrationally been beaten down too low, and you can sell them when market exuberance has overpriced a company.

As a small investor, you will not move the market no matter what you do, so you can remain calm and analyze each company to determine the best price to sell and the best price to buy. Your personal moves will not be noticed and start a run on any company. You can quietly and efficiently make your profit.

The key thing to remember is that, when you buy a stock, you may pay too much or you may get an excellent deal. It is only through analysis and research that you can make that determination. It is also essential to remember that most stocks are appropriately priced and will not be a bargain. You will need to be patient to find companies that are bargains. The tools that I describe in my book, The Confident Investor, will help you with that analysis. You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in e-book formats for Nook, Kindle, and iPad.