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Company name O’Reilly Automotive Inc
Stock ticker ORLY
Live stock price [stckqut]ORLY[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $128.53
Target stock price (averages with growth) $167.01
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $122.15
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $124.25

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=orly

O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (O’Reilly) is a specialty retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories in the United States, selling its products to both do-it-yourself (DIY) customers and professional service providers. As of December 31, 2011, O’Reilly operated 3,740 stores in 39 states. The Company’s stores product line includes products, such as new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, such as alternators, starters, fuel pumps, water pumps, brake system components, batteries, belts, hoses, temperature control, chassis parts and engine parts; maintenance items, such as oil, antifreeze, fluids, filters, wiper blades, lighting, engine additives and appearance products, and accessories, such as floor mats, seat covers and truck accessories. Its stores offer a number of services and programs to its customers, such as used oil and battery recycling; battery diagnostic testing; professional paint shop mixing and related materials, and machine shops.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

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Company name McDonald’s Corporation
Stock ticker MCD
Live stock price [stckqut]MCD[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $76.73
Target stock price (averages with growth) $92.68
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $82.48
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $81.17

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=mcd

McDonald’s Corporation franchises and operates McDonald’s restaurants in the global restaurant industry. These restaurants serve a menu at various price points providing value in 119 countries globally. As of December 31, 2011, of the 33,510 restaurants in 119 countries 27,075 were franchised or licensed (including 19,527 franchised to conventional franchisees, 3,929 licensed to developmental licensees and 3,619 licensed to foreign affiliates (affiliates)-primarily Japan) and 6,435 were operated by the Company. McDonald’s menu includes hamburgers and cheeseburgers, Big Mac, Quarter Pounder with Cheese, Filet-O-Fish, several chicken sandwiches, Chicken McNuggets, Snack Wraps, French fries, salads, oatmeal, shakes, McFlurry desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, pies, soft drinks, coffee, McCafe beverages and other beverages.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

 

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Company name Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Stock ticker CMG
Live stock price [stckqut]CMG[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $519.82
Target stock price (averages with growth) $701.06
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $469.44
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $521.35

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=cmg

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. and its subsidiaries (Chipotle) operate restaurants throughout the United States, as well as two restaurants in Toronto, Canada and two in London, England. As of December 31, 2011, Chipotle operated 1,230 restaurants, which includes one ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen. The Company’s restaurants serve a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. The Company manages its operations and restaurants based on six regions that all report into a single segment. As of December 31, 2011, the Company delivered ingredients and other supplies to its restaurants from 22 independently owned and operated regional distribution centers. Chipotle categorizes its restaurants as either end-caps (at the end of a line of retail outlets), in-lines (in a line of retail outlets), free-standing or other.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

 

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Company name Buffalo Wild Wings
Stock ticker BWLD
Live stock price [stckqut]BWLD[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $117.05
Target stock price (averages with growth) $160.96
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $113.36
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $112.07

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=bwld

Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. is an owner, operator and franchisor of restaurants featuring a variety of menu items, including its Buffalo, New York-style chicken wings spun in any of its 14 signature sauces or four signature seasonings. Its restaurants create an atmosphere that includes a multi-media system, a full bar and an open layout, which appeals to sports fans and families alike. Its guests have the option of watching sporting events or other programs on its projection screens and approximately 50 additional televisions, competing in Buzztime Trivia, or playing video games. The open layout of its restaurants offers dining and bar areas that provide seating choices for sports fans and families. Its menu features traditional chicken wings, boneless wings, and other items, including chicken tenders, Wild Flatbreads, popcorn shrimp, specialty hamburgers and sandwiches, wraps, Buffalito soft tacos, appetizers and salads.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

 

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Company name Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Stock ticker CMG
Live stock price [stckqut]CMG[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $436.04
Target stock price (averages with growth) $610.21
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $430.45
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $445.05

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=cmg

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. and its subsidiaries (Chipotle) operate restaurants throughout the United States, as well as two restaurants in Toronto, Canada and two in London, England. As of December 31, 2011, Chipotle operated 1,230 restaurants, which includes one ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen. The Company’s restaurants serve a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. The Company manages its operations and restaurants based on six regions that all report into a single segment. As of December 31, 2011, the Company delivered ingredients and other supplies to its restaurants from 22 independently owned and operated regional distribution centers. Chipotle categorizes its restaurants as either end-caps (at the end of a line of retail outlets), in-lines (in a line of retail outlets), free-standing or other.

 

Confident Investor comments: I understand that at the time of this writing, Chipotle has taken a major reduction in price. This is why I am putting them on my Watch List. The market correction is likely too extreme. At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.