My personal preference is that companies keep their stock price below $200 per share. My logic is simple: it makes it easier to evenly distribute your investment portfolio.

My balanced portfolio logic is quite simple. If you want to balance your portfolio quarterly between 10 great stocks, it is easier with lower-priced stocks. With a stock that is trading at $200, you can easily hold the correct number of shares to be within $100 (half the per share price) of the target value. With a stock that is trading at $1200 per share, the variance is now $600 which can easily throw off the balanced exposure for a small investor like most of my readers.

I discuss two types of portfolios on this site and in my book, The Confident Investor, which you can buy wherever books are sold. The more cautious portfolio suggests a target portfolio allocation for each purchase but is based on a fast-response momentum philosophy that moves that allocation to whichever stock is increasing in price at the moment. The stocks to invest in are chosen by the quality of the company and I list them on my Watch List. This portfolio regularly beats the market over time by at least 20% (if not 50%) regardless if the market is bull, bear, or flat.

The second type of portfolio is much more aggressive and often is 3X-4X the market increase in a bull market. However, it is not as safe in a flat or bear market. This strategy evenly divides a portfolio among 15 great companies that are growing their stock price faster than the others on my Watch List. I recalculate the top 15 and rebalance the portfolio quarterly.

In both portfolios, it is easier to balance the portfolio or allocate each portion of the portfolio if the stock price is under $200. When the stock is over $200, most investors that are working with a portfolio under $250,000 find themselves to heavy or too light in high-cost stocks.

You can see the performance of my version of both portfolios by reading my regular posts that are in the category Weekly Portfolio Gain. You do not need to have read my book to see these results although you may not understand how I create the list of companies.

Stock splits, once considered a way to keep shares affordable for mom-and-pop investors, are rare today as companies aspire to new heights.

Amazon [stckqut]AMZN[/stckqut], Google [stckqut]GOOGL[/stckqut], and Priceline [stckqut]PCLN[/stckqut] are recent examples of companies that have let their stock prices approach or exceed a four-figure price.

In the 1990s, when stock picking for one’s own account was in vogue, companies also considered splits a way to keep shares affordable for mom-and-pop investors. Even though nothing changes fundamentally about the company with a stock split—it’s like trading a dime for two nickels—splits used to generate excitement and, often, a short-term pop for the shares.

In recent years, though, individuals have gravitated toward index funds. And institutional investors don’t like stock splits, because increasing the number of shares increases their trading costs.

The godfather of the no-split camp is Berkshire Hathaway Inc. [stckqut]BRK.A[/stckqut] Chairman Warren Buffett. Berkshire’s Class A shares are the priciest U.S.-listed equities at the time of this writing. For years, Mr. Buffett said he didn’t want to split the shares because he didn’t want to attract people who found such a move to be a good reason for buying a stock. “People who buy for non-value reasons are likely to sell for non-value reasons,” he said in a 1984 letter to shareholders.

There are reasons behind the trend. Before the rise of discount brokerages and a decline in trading commissions in the 1990s, even small-time investors often had to buy shares in round lots of 100, which meant that a high price could make such a purchase prohibitively expensive. These days, though, retail investors can buy as little as one share, and often pay commissions of $10 or less.

Academics who have studied share splits have also posited that executives who split their company’s stock may be motivated by a desire to keep their share prices from looking expensive. Now, some companies and their investors seem to treat higher stock prices as a sign of accomplishment. Of course, this bragado is just as foolish as calling a $50 stock: cheap.

A fair concern is companies may have held off on splitting shares in recent years in response to the financial crisis, when stock prices dropped sharply and some big companies were humbled into performing reverse splits to raise their share price to avoid being delisted. Reverse stock splits are embarrassing and painful and of course being delisted is the equivalent of death in the stock market.

Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos hasn’t ruled out the idea of a split, which the firm did three times as a young public company. A shareholder at Amazon’s annual meeting in Seattle on Tuesday asked Mr. Bezos if he would consider splitting the company’s shares to give members of the middle class and younger people the chance to afford the shares.

You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in e-book formats for Nook, Kindle, and iPad.

Source: Amazon’s Brush With $1,000 Signals the Death of the Stock Split

amazon photoCommenting on Amazon.com, Inc.’s [stckqut]AMZN[/stckqut] first quarter results, MKM Partners said the pace of investment spending by the online retail behemoth isn’t moderating and investors are supportive.

Analyst Rob Sanderson dwelled on the company’s heavy investment in Prime Video, devices and technology, fulfillment capacity, international markets, AWS and other innovations in areas such as robotics and AI. The analyst said investors continue to be supporting of these multi-billion dollar investment areas, placing a significant amount of trust in the business model and the management.

Outlining the reasons for investor faith in the company’s massive capital spending, the analyst said:

  • The major opportunities are large and tangible.
  • Amazon is in a strong market position.
  • Management’s track record is very good.

“We view this as a highly unusual position for any company and a significant advantage that AMZN has over competitors also eyeing these large opportunities,” the analyst commented.

MKM Partners sees significant earnings power potential, especially as higher margin revenue sources like 3P, FBA, advertising and AWS are growing significantly faster than the overall business.

The Best Long-term Growth Opportunity

MKM Partners said, “Our view on AMZN has not changed, we consider the company the best long-term growth opportunity available to investors today.

“While investors continue to be supportive of heavy investments, we do think the stock is increasingly risky as it continues to reach new highs and the profit cycle continues to push further into the future.”

The firm increased its price target for Amazon shares from $995 to $1,095, seeing potential for 15 percent upside over the next year. The rating was maintained at Buy.

Rather than buying aggressively at these levels, the firm recommends adding to positions on market volatility. I, on the other hand, suggest that you simply buy the stock and hold on to it until it significantly dips or until you need to reduce your holdings due to over-exposure.

Source: Amazon’s Not Slowing Down On Investment Spending, And Investors Like It

Photo by Galería de ► Bee, like bees! <3

EVERY chief executive hopes to lead his company to success. Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s boss [stckqut]AMZN[/stckqut], wants something more epic. A prominent wall in the company’s headquarters in Seattle is covered with narratives from historic explorations: excerpts from “The Odyssey”; notes from the journey of Lewis and Clark as they ventured across America; the transcript of the first moon-walkers talking to mission control. At the end, ones and zeroes spell out how far the company has got: “Day One”.

The phrase, reflecting Mr Bezos’s belief that Amazon’s journey has just begun—and begins again each day—is the company’s mantra. At any other firm such grandiosity would invite derision. At Amazon, it makes investors drool and rivals quake.

Amazon, which went public 20 years ago, is now the world’s fifth-largest company by value, worth over $400bn (see chart). Its e-commerce site accounts for about 5% of retail spending in America, roughly half the share of Walmart, the biggest firm in the sector. It is the biggest online retailer in America, and accounts for over half of all new spending. Its cloud-computing business, Amazon Web Services (AWS), is larger in terms of basic computing services than the three closest competing cloud offerings combined.

Since the start of 2015 Amazon’s share price has risen by 173%, seven times the growth of the preceding two years. Operating profits have expanded, too, but at $4.2bn remain relatively small—which is how shareholders like it. Amazon has always emphasised the value of long-term growth (presumably with some bigger profits down the line), and investors have come to accept this. In February, when Amazon reported higher profits but lower revenue than expected, its share price temporarily dipped. Shareholders worried it might not be set to grow as quickly as they had hoped.

Morgan Stanley, a bank, expects Amazon’s sales to rise by a compound average of 16% each year from 2016 through to 2025: that is higher than its estimates for Google or Facebook. That is a slower pace than Amazon managed over the past decade; but the bigger a company is, the harder it is to keep growing. Amazon’s annual sales of $136bn are almost 50% more than those of Alphabet, Google’s parent, and over four times Facebook’s. Credit Suisse, another bank, calculates that only ten firms with sales of more than $50bn have managed to grow by an average of 15% or more for ten years straight since 1950; no company with sales of more than $100bn has done so. If Amazon were to pull it off, it would be the most aggressive expansion of a giant company in the history of modern business.

Source: Primed: Are investors too optimistic about Amazon? | The Economist

Ten analysts now predict Amazon’s shares will eclipse the $1,000 mark in the next year, and 13 others have price targets within 5% of that goal. Since I follow the company, I will be putting out my price recommendation in the next couple weeks.

Amazon is now the fourth-largest company in the S&P 500 by market cap, ranking behind only Apple, Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet. Its stock price is now setting new all-time highs above the $900 mark. Incidentally, after adjusting for stock splits, that $400 target on Amazon in 1998 equates to about $67 today.

Amazon’s soaring market value—up more than 50% in the past 12 months to more than $430 billion—allows founder and CEO Jeff Bezos to sell about $1 billion of his shares each year to fund his space exploration venture. But that hasn’t stopped Wall Street from seeing the stars. Ten analysts now predict Amazon’s shares will eclipse the $1,000 mark in the next year, and 13 others have price targets within 5% of that goal, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Still, Amazon today isn’t quite the Amazon of old, trying to survive on razor-thin retail margins. Its fast-growing Web-services business has altered the company’s earnings and cash flow dramatically, as have other offerings. Brian Nowak of Morgan Stanley estimates that Amazon’s Prime membership, advertising and credit card programs generated about $9.3 billion in revenue last year and will grow to about $12.7 billion this year—all with a combined operating margin of around 70%. Helpful, as Amazon still needs all the fuel it can get.

Source: Amazon at $1,000, Wall Street’s Not-So-Bold Call

AMAZON [stckqut]AMZN[/stckqut] is an extraordinary company. The former bookseller accounts for more than half of every new dollar spent online in America. It is the world’s leading provider of cloud computing. This year Amazon will probably spend twice as much on television as HBO, a cable channel. Its own-brand physical products include batteries, almonds, suits and speakers linked to a virtual voice-activated assistant that can control, among other things, your lamps and sprinkler.

Yet Amazon’s shareholders are working on the premise that it is just getting started. Since the beginning of 2015 its share price has jumped by 173%, seven times quicker than in the two previous years (and 12 times faster than the S&P 500 index). With a market capitalisation of some $400bn, it is the fifth-most-valuable firm in the world. Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020.

That is because investors anticipate both an extraordinary rise in revenue, from sales of $136bn last year to half a trillion over the next decade, and a jump in profits. The hopes invested in it imply that it will probably become more profitable than any other firm in America. Ground for scepticism does not come much more fertile than this: Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation. Can it possibly do so?

It is easy to tick off some of the pitfalls. Rivals will not stand still. Microsoft has cloud-computing ambitions; Walmart already has revenues nudging $500bn and is beefing up online. If anything happened to Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and boss, the gap would be exceptionally hard to fill. But the striking thing about the company is how much of a chance it has of achieving such unprecedented goals.

Source: Corporate ambitions: Amazon, the world’s most remarkable firm, is just getting started | The Economist