For the past couple weeks (and for the next several weeks) I am publicly reviewing my Watch List. This is an important task that all investors should do on a regular basis. Analyzing your investments to make sure they are performing to your standards is essential to your success as an investor. While I am not as popular at Jim Cramer, I do like to follow his advice and announce when I change my mind on a stock.

This week, I removed Caterpillar [stckqut]CAT[/stckqut], Chipotle [stckqut]CMG[/stckqut], and Carbo Ceramics [stckqut]CRR[/stckqut].  For different reasons, each of these companies was not performing to my expectations. If you want to understand this logic, you should read my book, The Confident Investor.   You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as AmazonBarnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in e-book formats for NookKindle, and iPad.

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I hope that you enjoy the continued conversation.

Company name Cirrus Logic, Inc.
Stock ticker CRUS
Live stock price [stckqut]CRUS[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Fair
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $30.72
Target stock price (averages with growth) $42.68
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $33.86
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $24.85

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=crus

Cirrus Logic, Inc. is a United States-based company, which supplies high-precision analog and digital signal processing components for audio and energy markets. The Companys products include analog-to-digital converters (ADCs), digital-to-analog converters (DACs), codecs that integrate ADCs and DACs into a single integrated circuit (IC), digital interface ICs, Class D digital amplifier controllers and power stages and audio DSPs. Its products are used in consumer applications, including smartphones, tablet personal computers (PCs), audio/video receivers, portable media players, soundbars, complete home theater systems, set-top boxes, gaming devices, sound cards and digital televisions (TVs). The Company offers applications for products within professional markets include digital mixing consoles, multitrack digital recorders and effects processors. Its applications for products within automotive markets include amplifiers, satellite radio systems and multispeaker car audio systems.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

Company name CARBO Ceramics Inc.
Stock ticker CRR
Live stock price [stckqut]CRR[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Fair
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Fair
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Fair

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Poor
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $46.75
Target stock price (averages with growth) $57.2
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $58.74
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $57.07

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=crr

CARBO Ceramics Inc. is the supplier of ceramic proppant and the resin-coated sand. The Company is the provider of the fracture simulation software, and a provider of fracture design and consulting services, and a range of technologies for spill prevention, containment and countermeasures. The Company sells its products and services to operators of oil and natural gas wells, and to oilfield service companies. The Company’s products and services are primarily used in the hydraulic fracturing of natural gas and oil wells. The Company primarily manufactures five ceramic proppants. CARBOHSP and CARBOPROP are proppants designed primarily for use in deep oil and gas wells. It also sells fracture simulation software and provides fracture design, engineering and consulting services to oil and natural gas companies worldwide through its wholly owned subsidiary, StrataGen, Inc. The Company, during the year ended December 31, 2012, wound up its business in Applied Geomechanics, Inc.

 

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock. My previous target for this stock was greatly exceeded but recent performance data has me questioning this company. I am removing Carbo Ceramics from my Watch List.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.
 

A stock exchange is similar to an auction house. If you collected rare coins and saw that a leading auction house had coins to sell, you could attend the auction. You would compete with other interested buyers for the coins. The buyer who agreed to pay the highest price would acquire the coins.

Probably a bit more relevant to your everyday experience is when you buy something on eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY). With eBay, you can set the minimum and maximum you will pay for the item. As other bidders enter the market, they can bid against you with eBay’s automatic bid tool until one of you reaches your personal maximum; the most that you think the item is worth. At that point, one bidder will be the current leader and others will have to bid against the leader.

At any time during the auction, an interested bidder on eBay could value the item more and increase the bid to be the leader. The winner of the item is the person with the largest bid at the end of the auction deadline set by the seller.

The stock market is larger and more efficient than eBay!

The auction example doesn’t quite hold for stock price, though, as there are no deadlines. Also, buyers may immediately become sellers. It is similar in that the stock price is set by the number of people who want to sell their shares at the current price and those who want to buy the stock at that price.

If an investor wants to sell shares of a company, he looks at the current share price and determines if it is in his best interest to sell the stock. If it is, he will sell it. If he needs a higher price to sell the shares to meet his goals, he will hold on to the stock. If no investors want to sell their shares at a given price, then no buyers will be able to buy shares. This will cause the price to increase until some investor somewhere thinks the price is high enough to sell.

The converse is also true. There are times when potential investors believe that a stock’s price is too high to be a suitable investment. At the same time, there are shareholders who want to sell the stock. In this case, the price will go down until some investor wishes to buy the stock. Most stocks huge volume changing hands in any given day so there is little delay between the buying and selling of a stock.

This makes the market extremely efficient but a little chaotic. Every investor has a different way to analyze the company and determine if it is wise to invest. Also, every investor has separate outside influences in spending money, which includes other investment options. With the diverse range of influences and opinions of thousands or millions of investors, the market may be quite volatile. Prices can change a few percentage points each day on the most stable of days and move even farther on days when there is a significant amount of activity.

The good news for you, the individual investor, is that you do not need to understand all of this background theory. You simply need to understand that when you want to buy a stock you can buy it. The price may be better or worse tomorrow though so it is important to try to buy the stock at a discount. This is where my book, The Confident Investor, can help. You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in e-book formats for Nook, Kindle, and iPad.

Company name Capital One Financial Corp.
Stock ticker COF
Live stock price [stckqut]COF[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Fair
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $90.37
Target stock price (averages with growth) $161.2
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $173.4
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $64.13

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=cof

Capital One Financial Corporation is a diversified financial services holding company with banking and non-banking subsidiaries. Capital One Financial Corporation and its subsidiaries offer an array of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients through branches, the Internet and other distribution channels. As of December 31, 2012, the Company’s principal subsidiaries included Capital One Bank (USA), National Association (COBN), which offers credit and debit card products, other lending products and deposit products, and Capital One, National Association (CONA), which offers a spectrum of banking products and financial services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients. On February 17, 2012, the Company acquired ING Direct business in the United States (ING Direct) from ING Groep N.V., ING Bank N.V., ING Direct N.V. and ING Direct Bancorp.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.