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Company name Priceline Group Inc
Stock ticker PCLN
Live stock price [stckqut]PCLN[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Fair
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $1884.84
Target stock price (averages with growth) $2031.84
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $922.78
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $1764.84

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=pcln

The Priceline Group Inc. is a provider of online travel and travel related reservation and search services. The Company, through its online travel agent (OTA) services, connects consumers wishing to make travel reservations with providers of travel services across the world. The Company’s brands include Booking.com, KAYAK, agoda.com, rentalcars.com and OpenTable. The Company offers consumers accommodation reservations, including hotels, bed and breakfasts, hostels, apartments, vacation rentals and other properties, through its Booking.com, priceline.com and agoda.com brands. Its priceline.com brand also offers consumers reservations for rental cars, airline tickets, vacation packages and cruises. The Company offers rental car reservations through its Website rentalcars.com. The Company also provides an online price comparison service from various travel Websites through KAYAK. OpenTable provides its services to consumers and reservation management services to restaurants.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Priceline Group Inc.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Priceline Group Inc calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
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In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $1219.97
  • Growth: 0.19
  • Current EPS (TTM): $45.81
  • P/E: 26
  • Future EPS Calc: $109.31
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $2842.29
  • Target stock price: $1764.83

[/s2If]
I hope that this makes you a Confident Investor.

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  1. Federal Reserve and the Rate Hike Quagmire. By itself, a bump up in overnight lending rates may not be a big deal. Conversely, participants may perceive inaction (an unwillingness to do anything) or too much activity (back-to-back rate hikes on wishy-washy data) as a major policy mistake.
  2. Extremely High Valuations and Eroding Domestic Internals. High valuations alone can always move higher; excitement can turn to euphoria. Yet history has rarely been kind to the combination of stock overvaluation and narrowing leadership (i.e., bad breadth).
  3. Fading Effects Of Quantitative Easing/Other Stimulative Measures In Foreign Stocks. Both Europe and Japan had seen their prices surge shortly after confirmation of asset purchases. Over the last three months, those fortunes have cooled relative to the U.S. In some instances, as has been the case in China, stimulative measures that didn’t work eventually turned to direct (as opposed to indirect) market manipulation. Is the world losing faith in its central banks?
  4. The Return of Credit Risk Aversion In Bonds. Seven months into 2015 and the widely anticipated jump in 10-year yields is nowhere to be seen. In fact, the 10-year at 2.25% is roughly in the exact same place as it was when the year started. It has been lower (much lower); it has been higher, not far from 2.5%. Yet the bottom line is that treasuries via the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:IEF) is rising in relative strength when compared with a high yield bond proxy like the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:HYG).
  5. Economic Weakness in the U.S. and Across the Globe. Latin America, Asia, Europe. Name the region and the economic deterioration is palpable. In contrast, many portray the U.S. economy in a positive light. Headline unemployment is low, home prices are high and Q2 GDP at 2.3% is faster than what we witnessed in Q1. Yet labor force participation (employment) is at 1977 levels, home ownership is at the lowest levels since 1967 and GDP has grown at an anemic 2% over the last six years. That’s not what a recovery typically looks like. It is no wonder that revenue (sales) at U.S. corporations will be negative for the second consecutive quarter. And when both the quality of job growth as well as the weakness in revenues are tallied, nobody should be surprised at the snail’s pace of wage growth either (2%).

Source: 5 Reasons To Lower Your Allocation To Riskier Assets

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It has taken less than two decades for Netflix Inc. [stckqut]NFLX[/stckqut] to transform how people watch TV and movies. That’s how much time has elapsed since co-founder and Chief Executive Reed Hastings, irked by a $40 late fee at a video store in 1997, came up with the idea for the service.

Today, binge watching video is so common that viewers expect to be able to start and finish full TV series in a weekend. Netflix has led a dramatic shift that has overturned the cable-TV business and pushed media companies to offer stand-alone services at affordable prices.

Netflix NFLX, +1.92% is now looking to challenge some of the most creative minds in the business, in its quest to become the gold standard of content while continuing to lead in streaming technology.
“When you look at studios like Pixar, that combine great story telling and the great technological aspects, that’s where we want to be,” Hastings told MarketWatch.

Achieving that goal means spending billions of dollars to produce content and extend the service to all corners of the globe. Yet Netflix’s revenue still relies on a $7.99-a-month base fee. Profit tumbled 63% in its latest quarter as it spent more on content and expansion in foreign markets, and its negative free cash flow widened. The company’s unwavering opposition to advertisements and its apparent lack of interest in cracking down on account sharing raise serious questions about whether it can continue with the same model while working to achieve such audacious goals.

Source: Netflix CEO wants to take over the world – MarketWatch

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Company name Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
Stock ticker NLY
Live stock price [stckqut]NLY[/stckqut]
Confident Investor Rating Poor

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=nly

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company uses its capital coupled with borrowed funds to invest in real estate related investments, earning the spread between the yield on its assets and the cost of its borrowings. It owns a portfolio of real estate related investments, including mortgage pass-through certificates, collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), Agency callable debentures, other securities representing interests in or obligations backed by pools of mortgage loans, commercial real estate assets and corporate debt. The Company’s business operations consist of Annaly (the parent company), Annaly Commercial Real Estate Group, Inc. (ACREG), RCap Securities, Inc., Fixed Income Discount Advisory Company (FIDAC), Annaly Middle Market Lending LLC and Shannon Funding LLC.
Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Annaly Capital Management, Inc. It is not possible to confidently invest in a company that is not currently profitable. I have removed this stock from my Watch List.
If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

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Buffalo Wild Wings’ [stckqut]BWLD[/stckqut] second quarter profits were down more than 9 percent and fell short of stock analysts’ estimates, as the restaurant chain coped with higher labor and chicken wing costs.

The Golden Valley-based company, known for its wings, beer and sports motif, posted second quarter net earnings of $21.5 million or $1.12 per share, down from $23.7 million or $1.25 a year ago.

Stock analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, on average, were expecting per share profits of $1.26.

Buffalo Wild Wings announced its earnings after the stock market closed Tuesday. On Wednesday, shares were up more than 13 percent in midday trading.Buffalo Wild Wings recorded sales of $426.4 million, up 16.5 percent over a year ago but short of the $429.3 million expected by analysts.

However, same-store sales, a key financial gauge, rose 4.2 percent over a year ago at stores owned by Buffalo Wild Wings and 2.5 percent at franchised stores — a better performance than analysts expected. Comparable sales take into account newly opened and closed stores.

Source: Buffalo Wild Wings shares soar despite 2Q miss – StarTribune.com