you need to parachute out of a loser stock

you need to parachute out of a loser stockYou need to sell a loser stock.  Don’t wait for it to rebound.  It is much easier to recover from a losing position by investing in a good stock that is currently increasing in value. A loser stock that is currently dropping in value is simply dragging your portfolio into the red.

If you have lost 7-10% of your value in a single stock, you need to cut your losses. Jim Cramer, the famed TV investment adviser, often says that it doesn’t matter where the company has been. It only matters where it is going. If the loser stock is still going or going sideways, you will need to sell the stock.

A loser stock that has lost a significant amount is not likely to be on the rebound very soon. You will probably need to find another stock that is increasing in value to make up the loss. Sitting on the loser stock and waiting for it to plateau and then regain its value is simply costing you money in lost opportunity costs. It is like throwing good money after bad.

This is even more obvious when you factor in the lost opportunity costs of the loser stock. While you were watching the loser stock decline in value, another great stock was actually increasing in value. So you didn’t just lose 7-10%, you actually lost an additional 5-10% since surely another stock was growing at that time. Except for general market corrections, such as what happened in October 2008, some stocks are going up and some stocks are going down. Sticking with a stock that is going down only adds to your losses.

Even the great stocks on my Watch List can be loser stocks at times. They can have a bad quarter or not react well to a current situation. It is important to constantly analyze if the company should get your trading money (it is going up and not down). It is equally important to know if it is time to exit the company completely because it has lost its way. For this reason, I will regularly review the companies on my Watch List and if they are no longer performing satisfactorily, I sell all my holdings.

So when do you know when it is time to sell a loser stock?

Simple – you need to understand technical analysis of stocks. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to do this, you simply need to read my book, The Confident Investor to understand the basics. In my book I explain these basic tools.

Unfortunately, if you have not read my book you will probably not understand the details of my technique. You must be an owner of my book and registered on this site as a book owner to see this review. I strongly suggest that if you want to increase your confidence in your investments, you buy my book, “The Confident Investor” and learn how to Grow on Other People’s Money.

[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)] By watching the EMA in 5, 10, and 20 day increments, you will get an immediate feedback to the direction of the stock. The MACD based on 5, 10, and 20 will allow you to see the direction of the stock, as well as to sense if it is caught in a channel. Finally, the RSI will tell you if the market is buying the stock too quickly and it is danger of being oversold or overbought.

If you do not understand these indicators, please review them in my book. If that doesn’t help, send me a note.

[/s2If]

Photo by U.S. Pacific Air Forces

Company name Helmerich & Payne, Inc.
Stock ticker HP
Live stock price [stckqut]HP[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Fair
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $166.81
Target stock price (averages with growth) $375.71
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $431.83
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $148.52

The following company description is from Google Finance: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AHP&ei=Y_JrU_CNC9HzqwHO3IAg

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. is engaged in contract drilling of oil and gases wells for others and this business. The Company’s contract drilling business is composed of three reportable business segments: U.S. Land, Offshore and International Land. During the fiscal year ended September 30, 2012 (fiscal 2012), the Company’s U.S. Land operations drilled in Oklahoma, California, Texas, Wyoming, Colorado, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Utah, Arkansas, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. Offshore operations were conducted in the Gulf of Mexico, and offshore of California, Trinidad and Equatorial Guinea. During fiscal 2012, the Company’s International Land segment operated in six international locations: Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina, Tunisia, Bahrain and United Arab Emirates. The Company is also engaged in the ownership, development and operation of commercial real estate and the research and development of rotary steerable technology.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Helmerich & Payne, Inc.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Helmerich & Payne, Inc. calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $107.97

Growth: 0.18

Current EPS (TTM): $6.97

P/E: 15

Future EPS Calc: $15.94

Future Stock Price Calc: $239.18

Target stock price: $148.51

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

Company name Harley-Davidson Inc
Stock ticker HOG
Live stock price [stckqut]HOG[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $110.55
Target stock price (averages with growth) $132.28
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $91.66
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $98.87

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=hog

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company for the groups of companies doing business as Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) and Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). The Company operates in the Motorcycles and Related Products (Motorcycles) segment and the Financial Services (Financial Services) segment. The Motorcycles segment designs, manufactures and sells at wholesale heavyweight (street legal with engine displacement of 651+cc) Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as a line of motorcycle parts, accessories, general merchandise and related services. The Company conducts business on a global basis, with sales in North America, Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA), Asia-Pacific and Latin America. The Financial Services segment consists of HDFS, which provides wholesale and retail financing and provides insurance and insurance-related programs primarily to Harley-Davidson dealers and their retail customers. HDFS conducts business principally in the United States and Canada.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Harley-Davidson Inc.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Harley-Davidson Inc calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $71.64

Growth: 0.18

Current EPS (TTM): $3.48

P/E: 20

Future EPS Calc: $7.96

Future Stock Price Calc: $159.22

Target stock price: $98.86

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

Company name HMS Holdings Corp
Stock ticker HMSY
Live stock price [stckqut]HMSY[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Fair
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Fair
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Poor

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $11.07
Target stock price (averages with growth) $17.6
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $17.81
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $23.01

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=hmsy

HMS Holdings Corp. (HMS) provides cost containment services to Government and private healthcare payers and sponsors. Its services ensure that healthcare claims are paid correctly, and its coordination of benefits services ensure that they are paid by the responsible party. Together, these services help clients recover amounts from liable third parties; prevent future improper payments; reduce fraud, waste and abuse; and ensure regulatory compliance. Its clients are the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS); state Medicaid agencies; commercial health plans, including Medicaid managed care, Medicare Advantage, and group health lines of business; government and private employers; Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs); child support agencies; the Veterans Health Administration (VHA); and other healthcare payers and sponsors. In December 2012, the Company acquired the assets and liabilities of MRM, which provides Workers’ Compensation recovery services for commercial health plans.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in HMS Holdings Corp as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns. I am going to remove HMS Holdings from my Watch List.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of HMS Holdings Corp calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $16.31

Growth: 0.18

Current EPS (TTM): $0.45

P/E: 36

Future EPS Calc: $1.02

Future Stock Price Calc: $37.06

Target stock price: $23.01

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]