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Company name Paychex, Inc.
Stock ticker PAYX
Live stock price [stckqut]PAYX[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Poor

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Poor
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $25.45
Target stock price (averages with growth) $31.33
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $29.72
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $29.51

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=payx

Paychex, Inc. is a provider of payroll, human resource, and benefits outsourcing solutions for small to medium-sized businesses. As of May 31, 2012, the Company serviced approximately 567,000 clients, including approximately 2,000 clients through four offices in Germany. The Company offers a portfolio of services and products that allows its clients to meet their diverse payroll and human resource needs. These include payroll processing; payroll tax administration services; employee payment services; regulatory compliance services (new-hire reporting and garnishment processing); Paychex HR Solutions; retirement services administration; insurance services; eServices, and other human resource services and products. In January 2012, the Company acquired Icon Time Systems, Inc. In December 2012, the Company acquired ExpenseWire from Rearden Commerce Inc.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor

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Several hundred people read my site because they are subscribed to my RSS feed. Most of those RSS readers are using Google Reader to read the content.

Google has recently announced that they are ending the support of Google Reader. This change will occur on July 1, 2013.

I have personally signed the petition to request that Google reverse this decision.  At the time of this writing, there were almost 70,000 other people that also signed the petition. There is weight in numbers so I suggest that everyone that uses RSS (with Google Reader or not) sign this petition.  Here is the link:

https://www.change.org/petitions/google-keep-google-reader-running#share

Please share this link with your friends.

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Company name Myriad Genetics, Inc.
Stock ticker MYGN
Live stock price [stckqut]MYGN[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $27.41
Target stock price (averages with growth) $31.67
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $23.44
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $27.16

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=mygn

Myriad Genetics, Inc. (Myriad) is a molecular diagnostic company. The Company is focused on developing and marketing predictive medicine, personalized medicine and prognostic medicine tests. It performs all of its molecular diagnostic testing and analysis in its own reference laboratories. These technologies include the cornerstone technologies of biomarker discovery, high-throughput deoxyribo nucleuc acid (DNA) sequencing, ribo nucleic acid (RNA) expression and multiplex protein analysis. The Company uses this information to guide the development of new molecular diagnostic tests that are designed to assess an individual’s risk for developing disease later in life (predictive medicine), identify a patient’s likelihood of responding to drug therapy and guide a patient’s dosing to ensure optimal treatment (personalized medicine), or assess a patient’s risk of disease progression and disease recurrence (prognostic medicine).

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

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Company name Mercury General Corporation
Stock ticker MCY
Live stock price [stckqut]MCY[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Poor

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Poor
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $21.05
Target stock price (averages with growth) $21.04
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $19.58
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $26.06

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=mcy

Mercury General Corporation (Mercury General) is an insurance holding company. The Company is a parent of Mercury Casualty Company (MCC), which is an automobile insurer. Including MCC, Mercury General has 21 subsidiaries. Mercury General, along with its subsidiaries, is primarily engaged in writing personal automobile insurance through 13 insurance subsidiaries (the Insurance Companies) in a number of states, principally California. The Company also writes homeowners, commercial automobile and property, mechanical breakdown, fire, and umbrella insurance. The Company offers collision, property damage liability, bodily injury (BI) liability, comprehensive, personal injury protection (PIP), underinsured and uninsured motorist, and other hazards to the automobile policyholders. The Company has reinsurance through the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Trust Fund (FHCF).

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

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Much of what you read and hear from “experts” is that you should “Buy and Hold” stocks and have a fixed investment schedule. They recommend that you find a quality company (or mutual fund), buy fixed amounts of stock out of your paycheck every month, and hold that stock for quite some time (maybe even decades). As I pointed out in the example from my book, The Confident Investor, it is possible to improve on this expert advice.

The “Buy and Hold” and “invest regularly” philosophy seems easy. It also shows commitment to your favorite stocks, but it’s not the philosophy that the “experts” use when they buy a stock!

EXAMPLE: Warren Buffet is considered to be one of the smartest buyers of companies ever. In a two-week span at the end of September 2008, Mr. Buffet bought stock in General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS). He did not buy just a little bit; he invested billions of dollars in each company in return for a large percentage of those companies. If GE and GS were such great investments, why did not he just put a regular installment system in place to buy the stock? Of course, they made him a special deal for the investment, but that only proves that when the price is right, you need to act.

EXAMPLE: Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) acquired all of the stock of Skype in 2011. This acquisition did not happen slowly by Microsoft investing in the Skype stock every month until they owned it all. Rather, Microsoft went to Skype investors and offered to pay them more than the current market price of the company. They did this because they saw value in total ownership of the company immediately. Microsoft executives evidently felt that Microsoft would be more profitable by buying all of Skype at one time.

The pages of the Wall Street Journal and Investors Business Daily have stories almost every day of individuals and corporations buying substantial portions of a company. These are some of the brightest investors on the planet. They show by their actions that the prudent way to purchase stock is to find a company that is priced right and invest their cash in that company. So why should you listen to experts say to “buy and hold” on a regular basis, when many experienced investors make substantial investments?

This site and my book are dedicated to trying to give you a better methodology. If you really want to understand how to significantly increase your wealth, you should purchase my book, The Confident Investor. You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in ebook formats for Nook, Kindle, and iPad.