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Last week was a good week for most investors. The major indices did fairly well and if you were an investor in the stocks of my Watch List, then you likely had a good week.

As always, my thoughts should only be used for educational purposes and any decision by the reader to use this information is subject to my disclaimer. In addition to the disclaimer, the stocks mentioned may have changed value from the time I wrote this to the time that you are reading it and therefore the conclusions below, may no longer be valid. The analysis on any investment indicator is always a short-term thought and just by being in this list the stock already is a long-term Good Company  or Fair Company and made my Watch List. If you are looking for long-term analysis of the stock, you should look for the stock in the company list that appears to the far right.

My analysis in this article is based on the investment indicator tools that I describe in my book, “The Confident Investor.” If you are not subscribed to this site as a book owner, then you will not be able to see some of the analysis. You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in e-book formats for Nook, Kindle, and iPad. After you purchase my book, it is free to subscribe to the extra content on this site. 

I will only be commenting on stocks that are ranked as an “Investigate to buy” and Possible buy” on my daily investment indicator article. The most recent daily investment indicator article is from May 24. Those stocks are:

  • Agilent Technologies Inc.,
  • Apple Inc.,
  • Alliance Data Systems Corporation,
  • Akamai Technologies Inc.,
  • Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc.,
  • AMETEK Inc.,
  • American Tower Corp,
  • Apache Corporation,
  • BlackRock Inc.,
  • Broadcom Corporation,
  • Baytex Energy Corp (USA),
  • Buffalo Wild Wings,
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V.,
  • Cerner Corporation,
  • Cummins Inc.,
  • Capital One Financial Corp.,
  • Cirrus Logic Inc.,
  • Equinix Inc,
  • Extra Space Storage Inc.,
  • First Financial Bancorp,
  • Google Inc,
  • Helmerich & Payne Inc.,
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co.,
  • KLA-Tencor Corporation,
  • Monster Beverage Corp,
  • Merck & Co. Inc.,
  • Nordson Corporation,
  • Netflix Inc.,
  • Annaly Capital Management Inc.,
  • Priceline Group Inc,
  • QUALCOMM Inc.,
  • Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc,
  • Skyworks Solutions Inc,
  • Trinity Industries Inc,
  • Under Armour Inc,

Investment Indicator Thoughts

S&P 500
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]The general S&P 500 (ticker is ^GSPC and the first line of my investment indicator articles). This index has shown increasing strength all of last week and should not be a hindrance in making buying decisions in any of its member companies.[/s2If]

NASDAQ Composite
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]The NASDAQ Composite (the ticker is ^IXIC and the second line of my investment indicator articles). This index has shown increasing strength all week and should not be a hindrance to buying decisions any of its member companies.[/s2If]

Agilent Technologies Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Agilent Technologies Inc. [stckqut]A[/stckqut] has shown a bit of a downturn towards the end of the week. It is too early to take profits but you should watch this stock for any more weakness.[/s2If]

Apple Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Apple Inc. [stckqut]AAPL[/stckqut] will be implementing its stock split strategy this week. Unless the bottom goes out on this stock, I would hold it all week.[/s2If]

Alliance Data Systems Corporation
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Alliance Data Systems Corporation [stckqut]ADS[/stckqut] is coming out of a multi-month slide. Watch for resistance at $264 and $294. This stock may be a good short term buy.[/s2If]

Akamai Technologies, Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Akamai Technologies, Inc. [stckqut]AKAM[/stckqut] is barely moving out of a multi-month slide. Recovery is not very strong. Be cautious that this may be a false bottom.[/s2If]

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. [stckqut]ALXN[/stckqut] has shown a bit of a downturn towards the end of the week. It is too early to take profits but you should watch this stock for any more weakness.[/s2If]

AMETEK, Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]AMETEK, Inc. [stckqut]AME[/stckqut] has been having difficulty breaking a $54 ceiling. Be careful that the current BUY signal doesn’t falter as it approaches that ceiling.[/s2If]

American Tower Corp
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]American Tower Corp [stckqut]AMT[/stckqut] has been showing some growth lately but the MACD is still negative. Be ready to move on this if the MACD goes positive.[/s2If]

Apache Corporation
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Apache Corporation [stckqut]APA[/stckqut] has been growing nicely for several months. No rise can last forever but there are no indications that a large pullback is likely in the short term.[/s2If]

BlackRock, Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]BlackRock, Inc. [stckqut]BLK[/stckqut] has been going sideways for several months. It may be forming a “flag” or “penant” formation. While the indicators are showing buy right now, it is likely the trend will continue to be sideways.[/s2If]

Broadcom Corporation
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Broadcom Corporation [stckqut]BRCM[/stckqut] has been going sideways for several months but has been showing buy for the past week. This may be a good time to own this stock.[/s2If]

Baytex Energy Corp (USA)
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Baytex Energy Corp (USA) [stckqut]BTE[/stckqut] has been going sideways for seveal weeks. It is just under its 52 week high and seems to be having a tough time breaking that limit.[/s2If]

Buffalo Wild Wings
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Buffalo Wild Wings [stckqut]BWLD[/stckqut] has been going sideways for seveal weeks and just hit a 52 week high a few weeks ago. It is just under its 52 week high and seems to be having a tough time breaking that limit.[/s2If]

Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V. [stckqut]CBI[/stckqut] looks like it is reversing its slide for the last couple weeks. Be careful of resistance at $87.[/s2If]

Cerner Corporation
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Cerner Corporation [stckqut]CERN[/stckqut] had a multi-week slide off of its 52 week high. That slide may have bottomed out now. Be cautious but this may be a good time to make up for the previous drop.[/s2If]

Cummins Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Cummins Inc. [stckqut]CMI[/stckqut] has been growing with starts and stops all year. This stock may require a bit of patience and you may not want to sell just because it drops below the slow EMA.[/s2If]

Capital One Financial Corp.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Capital One Financial Corp. [stckqut]COF[/stckqut] has been growing with starts and stops all year. This stock may require a bit of patience and you may not want to sell just because it drops below the slow EMA.[/s2If]

Cirrus Logic, Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Cirrus Logic, Inc. [stckqut]CRUS[/stckqut] has a negative MACD as it has been going sideways for a few weeks. Worth watching for when MACD goes positive.[/s2If]

Equinix Inc
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Equinix Inc [stckqut]EQIX[/stckqut] has been showing nice short-term growth over the last several weeks. Be cautious when the stock approaches ceiling of $203.[/s2If]

Extra Space Storage, Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Extra Space Storage, Inc. [stckqut]EXR[/stckqut] recently set its 52-week high. Be cautious of a pullback especially if the overall market slows down.[/s2If]

First Financial Bancorp
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]First Financial Bancorp [stckqut]FFBC[/stckqut] is trying to reverse a multi-week slide. If it works, look for resistance at $18.40.[/s2If]

Google Inc
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Google Inc [stckqut]GOOG[/stckqut] looks like it has recovered from a pull back at its recent high this spring. Be cautious as it passes $600 as profit takers could drive it back down.[/s2If]

Helmerich & Payne, Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Helmerich & Payne, Inc. [stckqut]HP[/stckqut] has pulled back from its 52-week high a few weeks ago. Currently is moving sideways. I foresee it eventually setting a new high unless the overall market reverses.[/s2If]

JPMorgan Chase & Co.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]JPMorgan Chase & Co. [stckqut]JPM[/stckqut] is trying to reverse a recent multi-week slide. Be cautious that this is a true recovery.[/s2If]

KLA-Tencor Corporation
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]KLA-Tencor Corporation [stckqut]KLAC[/stckqut] is trying to reverse a recent multi-week slide after setting a new high. Be cautious if this stock gets above $68 and definitely $71.[/s2If]

Monster Beverage Corp
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Monster Beverage Corp [stckqut]MNST[/stckqut] is moving sideways and is currently showing a negative MACD. Be ready to move if the MACD goes positive.[/s2If]

Merck & Co., Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Merck & Co., Inc. [stckqut]MRK[/stckqut] is reversing a short slide after setting a 52 week high. Look for a new high to be formed.[/s2If]

Nordson Corporation
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Nordson Corporation [stckqut]NDSN[/stckqut] went sideways all week after a big jump based on earnings announcement. Market may try to fill that gap so there is some gravity to pull this stock back. Further good news will prompt more growth.[/s2If]

Netflix, Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Netflix, Inc. [stckqut]NFLX[/stckqut] is showing continued growth after a recent reversal. Be cautious as the stock approaches $450[/s2If]

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Annaly Capital Management, Inc. [stckqut]NLY[/stckqut] is showing continued growth over the past few months. Resistance is possible at $12-$12.50.[/s2If]

Priceline Group Inc
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Priceline Group Inc [stckqut]PCLN[/stckqut] reversed its multi-week slide after creating a 52-week high. I foresee a new high being set soon.[/s2If]

QUALCOMM, Inc.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]QUALCOMM, Inc. [stckqut]QCOM[/stckqut] has been growing steadily all year long. This may be a case where it just makes sense to hold on and not worry about short-term set backs.[/s2If]

Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc [stckqut]QCOR[/stckqut] is showing a negaitve MACD but if you haven’t sold, you may want to hold it. Stock has been a steady growth for a couple months and has recently set a 52-week high.[/s2If]

Skyworks Solutions Inc
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Skyworks Solutions Inc [stckqut]SWKS[/stckqut] has been showing steady growth all year. It would take several days (if not a week) of negative growth for me to recommend selling now.[/s2If]

Trinity Industries Inc
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Trinity Industries Inc [stckqut]TRN[/stckqut] has been showing steady growth all year. It would take several days (if not a week) of negative growth for me to recommend selling now.[/s2If]

Under Armour Inc
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]This investment indicator analysis is for registered owners of my “The Confident Investor” book[/s2If][s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]Under Armour Inc [stckqut]UA[/stckqut] may be reversing a several week slide. Be cautious but this may be a time to see a rebound. Look for resistance at $54 and $59.[/s2If]

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Tip the scales with a buyback
Tip the scales with a buyback
Tip the scales with a buyback

It has been common over the last few years for companies to use a stock buyback to increase the value of the stock. In general, I prefer that a company invest money in research and development (R&D) than do a stock buyback. I even prefer R&D to  dividends. R&D tends to be a way to grow the capability of a company to have products in the future that the company’s customers will value. If the products are more valuable then it is likely sales will increase. As we have seen time and again, when sales increase at a company the value of the company will almost definitely increase.

What is a stock buyback?

A stock buyback is basically the company buying its own shares. Invariably, the CEO or CFO will say something like, “We don’t see any better investment than in ourselves.” This is probably a cop out since it is likely they could buy the stock of another company that is growing faster but it sounds good in press releases.

When a company elects to purchase outstanding shares of its own stock it can accomplish this through one of two ways:

  1. The company can tender an offer to existing stockholders. A tender offer invites shareholders to sell their stock, generally at a price above the market price, within a certain period of time.
  2. The company can purchase shares of its stock in the open market, similar to the way individuals would. In this case, the company would simply pay market price.

The general goal of a stock buyback is that there are fewer shares that are on the open market. This means that the stock price should gain in value as long as all other factors are equal. Let’s do a bit of quick math to explain this conclusion. We know that Market Value or Market Capitalization (often shortened to Market Cap on financial web sites) is the current stock price times the number of shares outstanding. Therefore, simple algebra says that if the market capitalization stays exactly the same and the number of shares goes down then the stock price has to go up to make up the difference. A simplistic example: we know that a US dollar is equal to a type of coin (a penny in this case) times 100. If we then say that we do not have 100 coins but we have 20 coins (the number of coins is reduced) and since it is still $1 then we know that the coins are now nickels rather than pennies.

The big reason to do this is the information that companies announce to the market. The companies will announce their earning per share of stock. This means if earnings are flat, the EPS will increase. If the earnings are increasing, EPS will increase even faster. As you can tell from my daily stock analysis posts on this site, EPS growth is very important to a Confident Investor!

It is important to understand that just because the executives announce a stock buyback program, it doesn’t mean that it actually executes on those buys. Many times the program is announced but no stocks are ever purchased.

There has been a great deal of research on the increase in value of a stock after a stock buyback. That is the goal after all. It would be terrible if a buyback triggered a reaction in the market that devalued the company and therefore offset the decrease in stock.

One real-world gauge of buybacks’ market-beating potential comes from an investment advisory service called the Buyback Letter, which is edited by David Fried. Investing only in stocks of companies that have announced repurchase programs, this service has returned significantly more than the market did over the last 20 years.

According to the Hulbert Financial Digest, its model portfolios have produced an average annualized return of 9.4% over this period, in contrast to the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index’s 4.4%. (Both returns include dividends.)

An additional feature that makes buyback strategies compelling: The success doesn’t depend on investors reacting immediately to a buyback announcement. That’s an important advantage, since many of Wall Street’s favorite strategies perform poorly if followers aren’t paying close attention to the markets during each trading session and taking action quickly.

Buyback strategies aren’t time-sensitive, according to David Ikenberry, Dean of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado, Boulder, and an expert on stock buybacks. In an interview, he said that he has found in his research that the average buyback stock outperforms the market in each of the four years following the company’s announcement of its share-repurchase program.

While a buyback program should not be the REASON that you buy a stock, it is a good thing. If you are trying to decide between two companies to invest in and both have similar metrics and R&D spend, buyback should be considered. If all other things are equal the one with a buyback is likely to be a better investment.

Image courtesy of digitalart / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

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Company name Yum! Brands, Inc.
Stock ticker YUM
Live stock price [stckqut]YUM[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Poor

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Poor
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $59.1
Target stock price (averages with growth) $69.35
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $57.62
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $76.16

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=yum

YUM! Brands, Inc. (YUM) is a quick service restaurant company based on number of system units, with over 39,000 units in more than 125 countries and territories. The Company, through three concepts of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell (Concepts) develops, operates, franchises and licenses a worldwide system of restaurants, which prepare, package and sell a menu of priced food items. The Company operates in six segments: YUM Restaurants China (China or China Division), YUM Restaurants International (YRI or International Division), Taco Bell U.S., KFC U.S., Pizza Hut U.S. and YUM Restaurants India (India or India Division). The China Division includes mainland China, and the India Division includes India, Bangladesh, Mauritius, Nepal and Sri Lanka. YRI includes the remainder of its international operations.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Yum! Brands, Inc. I have removed this company from my Watch List.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Yum! Brands, Inc. calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $74.77

Growth: 0.11

Current EPS (TTM): $2.51

P/E: 29

Future EPS Calc: $4.22

Future Stock Price Calc: $122.65

Target stock price: $76.15

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]