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I thought this was an interesting (albeit small) infographic.  How much personal information would you be willing to share to increase your discount?

 

I would share certain personal information. If I knew that I would do business again with the company, then I would be much more generous than if I thought I was not going to return. If I was not returning, then I would share bogus information and give out my email address that I reserve for getting spam.  A more trusted retailer would get my personal email and more data about me.

I saw this image on a Twitter post from the USAToday.

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ID-100203460The beginning of the year is when it seems like every financial website puts out its top or worst stocks. In that vein, I offer my 15 recommended stocks for 2014 – or at least the first half of the year. I cannot list the worst stocks, as there are too many of those to list. I can at least list the 15 recommended stocks that will give you a good basis for the first half of 2014.

Many sites do all year lists, but I am only committing to this list for the first 6 months. There is a great reason for this. It is almost impossible to predict the market farther out than 6 month. In fact, it is quite possible for the market to do a massive correction and even this list would be a fallacy. There is always some risk with any investment and you are encouraged to read this site’s disclaimer before acting on this list.

I would expect all of these companies to maintain their status as Good Companies on my Watch List. I would not expect all of them to make a top 15 recommended stocks list at the end of June. Some of them will grow a bit slower than I expect, and a couple of the 15 recommended stocks are probably going to lose money. As Peter Lynch famously said:

“In this business if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.”

By Peter’s standards, I hope to right on this list with 9 of these picks. I don’t expect all 15 recommended stocks to be massive growth stocks in the year. I also think the list is successful if the list of 15 beats the S&P 500 and the Dow30. In July, perhaps I will publish a list for the second half of the year.

If we would go back in time (starting from December 1) and buy the 15 recommended stocks 3 years ago our portfolio would have grown very nicely. These stocks would have appreciated by 73.35% year over year. They would have grown 184.79% over the last three years. These stocks would have beaten the market (as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average) for the last three years by 330.57%. In the past year, these stocks would have beaten the market by 212.17%. With that track record, we should expect good results in the next 6 months.

All of the stocks on this list are rated as Good Companies using the method that I describe in my book The Confident Investor.  You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in e-book formats for Nook, Kindle, and iPad.

The 15 recommended stocks were chosen from Good Companies on my Watch List. This means we already know they are fairly well managed and have a history of solid growth. While all of the stocks on the Watch List are Good Companies, these 15 recommended stocks seem to be the most well setup for aggressive growth in the first half of 2014.

The 15 recommended stocks for the first half of 2014 also performed very well over the past year and the past 3 years. As I have written before, the past is not a perfect indicator of the future, but it is probably the best indicator that we have to use.

I didn’t try overly hard to make this list of 15 recommended stocks to be a balanced portfolio covering multiple industries. I am happy to report that it isn’t a terrible unbalance. The most glaring omission is that it is very light in banking and in consumer technology. I simply could not find a banking stock that was worth the risk compared to other industries. Also, the consumer technology vertical is simply not performing that well right now. I anticipate that trend to continue for the next few months at least.

It might be possible to criticize this list by its heavy reliance on healthcare and retail. That would be fair but, once again, I wasn’t trying to get a perfectly balanced portfolio.

If you want a more balanced portfolio, you may want to consider some of the Honorable Mention stocks at the end of the list. Also, I always maintain that you should have approximately 30% of your portfolio invested in index funds. These funds should be divided by large and small cap funds, an index bond fund, and an index international fund. This would help to balance your portfolio.

You could also look at the Watch List of stocks. These stocks have shown that they are well-run companies. If you are concerned about a balanced portfolio, I suggest that you compliment the 15 recommended stocks with a couple stocks from the Watch List.

The list of 15 recommended stocks for the first half of 2014

  • ABMD
  • ALXN
  • BCPC
  • BLK
  • BWLD
  • CBI
  • CERN
  • GPOR
  • PCLN
  • QCOR
  • SAM
  • TMO
  • TSCO
  • UA
  • ULTA

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Company name Arkansas Best Corporation
Stock ticker ABFS
Live stock price [stckqut]ABFS[/stckqut]
Confident Investor Rating Poor

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=abfs

Arkansas Best Corporation is a provider of freight transportation services and solutions. The Company operates in five segments: Freight Transportation, Premium Logistics and Expedited Freight Services, Truck Brokerage and Management, Emergency and Preventative Maintenance and Household Goods Moving Services. The Company’s principal operations are conducted through its Freight Transportation operating segment, which consists of ABF Freight System, Inc. and certain other subsidiaries of the Company (ABF). As of December 31, 2012, ABF operated out of 277 terminal facilities, 10 of which also serve as distribution centers. On June 15, 2012, the Company acquired Panther Expedited Services, Inc. (Panther).

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Arkansas Best Corporation. It is not possible to confidently invest in a company that is not currently profitable.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

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Company name Walgreen Company
Stock ticker WAG
Live stock price [stckqut]WAG[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Fair
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Fair
P/E growth Fair
EBIT growth Fair

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $56.37
Target stock price (averages with growth) $72.26
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $62.92
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $62.18

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=wag

Walgreen Co. (Walgreens) together with its subsidiaries, operates the drugstore chain in the United States. The Company provides its customers with access to consumer goods and services, pharmacy, and health and wellness services in communities across America. The Company offers its products and services through drugstores, as well as through mails, by telephone and online. The Company sells prescription and non-prescription drugs, as well as general merchandises, including household items, convenience and fresh foods, personal care, beauty care, photofinishing and candy. In November 2013, the Company announced that it has completed its acquisition of certain assets of Kerr Drug’s retail drugstores and specialty pharmacy business.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Walgreen Company as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $57.97

Growth: 0.122

Current EPS (TTM): $2.56

P/E: 22

Future EPS Calc: $4.55

Future Stock Price Calc: $100.14

Target stock price: $62.18

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

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Company name Stone Energy Corporation
Stock ticker SGY
Live stock price [stckqut]SGY[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Poor

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Poor
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $16.17
Target stock price (averages with growth) $15.3
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $15.12
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $21.01

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=sgy

Stone Energy Corporation (Stone Energy) is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development and operation of oil and gas properties. The Company is operating in the Gulf Coast Basin. As of December 31, 2012, its estimated proved oil and natural gas reserves were approximately 773 billions of cubic feet equivalents (Bcfe). On June 18, 2012, the Company completed the acquisition of a 25% working interest in the five block deep water Pompano field in Mississippi Canyon, an approximate 14% working interest in Mississippi Canyon Block 29 and a 10% working interest in certain aliquots of Mississippi Canyon Block 72. As of February 21, 2013, its property portfolio consisted of 65 active properties and 129 primary term leases in the Gulf Coast Basin (onshore and offshore), five active properties in the Appalachia region, three active properties in the Rocky Mountain region and one active property in the Eagle Ford Shale formation.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Stone Energy Corporation.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $34.28

Growth: 0.01

Current EPS (TTM): $3.22

P/E: 10

Future EPS Calc: $3.38

Future Stock Price Calc: $33.84

Target stock price: $21.01

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]