Company name Fifth Third Bancorp
Stock ticker FITB
Live stock price [stckqut]FITB[/stckqut]
Confident Investor Rating Poor

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock. It is not possible to confidently invest in a company that is not currently profitable.

I picked this up over at Investopedia. This is a great article about losing money using Leveraged ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds). While there are some investment vehicles that make sense (such as index funds) there are some that simply don’t work out once you understand them.  This is the case with leveraged funds.  Rather than re-explain the math here, I suggest that you jump over to Investopedia to read it.  Below are some hightlights:

Have you ever wondered how you can make sure that your portfolio loses money? For those of you who are tired of that extra cash weighing down your pockets and would rather just lose it aimlessly than give it to a worthy cause, I found the ideal investment: levered [sic-leveraged] exchange traded funds.
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Consider a hypothetical stock that is tracked by two double-levered [sic] ETFs, one bull, one bear. Since the debt portion of the instrument must consistently be rebalanced to ensure a proper debt-to-equity ratio, the funds track the daily performance of the stock rather than the overall annual percent change. Suppose this stock, with an initial value of $100 experiences a 25% price decline, followed by a 25% increase and then a 6.67% increase to bring its price back up to $100. A double-levered bull ETF would have a terminal value of $85 ($100*1.50*0.50*1.133) while the inverse fund would be worth only $65 ($100*0.50*1.50*0.87). This is, of course, before we factor in the management expense ratio. Essentially, despite the trend in the market, these instruments will lose value due to the daily volatility of the underlying asset.

Company name Exxon Mobil Corporation
Stock ticker XOM
Live stock price [stckqut]XOM[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good
MANAGEMENT EXECUTION
Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good
ANALYSIS
Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $73.14
Target stock price (averages with growth) $74.76
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $64.5
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $63.9

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

Glenn Curtis of Investopedia recently suggested that it was time to leave the casino stocks. In his article he discusses 4 companies:

  1. Las Vegas Sands Corp.
  2. MGM Mirage
  3. Boyd Gaming Corporation
  4. Wynn Resorts, Limited

I haven’t done a stock analysis post on these four companies but I did a quick check on each one. Frankly, none of them pass the test as a decent company. I would never suggest that anyone invest in these companies in their present condition. They just aren’t that well run to justify an investment compared to other companies on the Good list!

A few of Glenn’s comments (more here):

The space was in the spotlight earlier this month, thanks in large part to upbeat revenue numbers from Macau during December. Macau has become a hot destination in recent years and is located in China. But if you think all this means I’m bullish on some of the bigger casino names, you’re mistaken. In fact, I think many stocks in this space are ripe for a fall.

Why My Reels Aren’t Spinning
Many of the big names have had a huge run since the spring of 2009. For example, MGM Mirage has seen its stock rise from the low single digits, under $2 per share in the spring, to currently trading at around $11.50. Las Vegas Sands has seen its stock rise from under $1.40 per share to its present position, hovering around the $18 mark. But again, I think the run is severely overdone.

My No.1 concern is that I don’t see many average people traveling, or even pondering expensive vacations in the months to come. And I’m not convinced that placing money into a slot machine or laying it on a hand of poker or “21” will sound too attractive to many, particularly until the job market shows some real life. In essence, the macro picture doesn’t seem to match the rise in the escalating stock prices.

You can lose your shirt at the casino or investing in them!