Editors Note: Comparing different investments with different dollar amounts and time periods is arithmetically more challenging than it first appears. When I do my side-by-side comparisons (such as IBM, Decker, or Boston Beer), I always do the same dollar amount and the same time period. Simon does a really good job of explaining how to do this if they are not the same dollar and time period.

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Ralph and Jackie are both keen investors in the stock market. In this article I’m going to explain how they can use two different methods of calculating a rate of return in order to compare the performance of their investments.

Ralph buys $1000 worth of stock in AlphaCorp. He holds it for exactly 2 years and then sells it for $1200. Jackie buys $3000 worth of stock in BetaCorp. She holds her stock for 1 year, and sells it for $3300. Just to keep the example simple, we’ll assume that neither Ralph nor Jackie receive any dividend payments from their stock.

Ralph and Jackie now want to compare their investments. They know that there are two main methods they could use: the Arithmetic Return and the Logarithmic Return (often shortened to Log Return).

Ralph’s total profit is $200, and Jackie’s is $300. So this tells them that Jackie has made more money overall. But she also invested more. Investing more usually means she took a greater risk (if the stock went down she would lose more money). To take this into account, they want to know the profit as a percentage of the amount invested. This is exactly what the Arithmetic Return gives them.

For Ralph’s investment in AlphaCorp the arithmetic return is 20%. For Jackie’s investment in BetaCorp the arithmetic return is 10%. So based on the arithmetic return, it looks like Ralph has made the better investment, as his gained 20% in value compared to 10% for Jackie’s investment.

But notice that Jackie sold her stock after 1 year, while Ralph held his for 2 years. The arithmetic return doesn’t include the duration of the investment, so these values cannot really be compared meaningfully. So now Ralph and Jackie compare their investments using the Logarithmic Return, which does take this into account to give an annual rate of return for each investment.

For Ralph’s investment in AlphaCorp the log return is 9.12%. For Jackie’s investment in BetaCorp the log return is 9.53%. Both of these are annual rates, so they can be directly compared.

So who made the better investment?

Based on the logarithmic return, Jackie’s investment was slightly better than Ralph’s. However, there is a slight caveat to mention, which is that Jackie sold her investment after 1 year, while Ralph held his for 2 years. If she really wants to do better than Ralph over 2 years, she will need to find another investment to make for the second year that does at least as well as Ralph’s 9.12%.

Both the Arithmetic Return and the Log Return are useful ways to compare the return on investments. The log return is normally the best choice for investments that were held for different lengths of time because it gives you an annual rate that you can compare between investments.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Simon_B_Veal and http://EzineArticles.com/7167133

 

Company name Deckers Outdoor Corp
Stock ticker DECK
Live stock price [stckqut]DECK[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Fair
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Fair
P/E growth Fair
EBIT growth Poor

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $66.6
Target stock price (averages with growth) $84.99
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $65.39
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $65.99

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=deck

Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs footwear developed for both high performance outdoor activities and everyday casual lifestyle use. The Company markets its products under three brands: UGG, Teva, and Sanuk. The Company sells its products, including accessories, such as handbags and outerwear, through quality domestic and international retailers, international distributors, and directly to end-user consumers both domestically and internationally, through its Websites, call centers, retail concept stores and retail outlet stores. In addition to the Company’s primary brands, its other brands include TSUBO, a line of casual footwear; Ahnu, a line of outdoor performance and lifestyle footwear; MOZO, a line of footwear that combines running shoe technology with work shoe toughness for individuals that spend long hours working on their feet, and Hoka, a line of footwear for all capacities of runner designed to alleviate fatigue, impact and muscle strain.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns. I am leaving this company on my Watch List but you should use a bit more caution compared to other Watch List companies.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

Company name Darling International Inc.
Stock ticker DAR
Live stock price [stckqut]DAR[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Fair
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $29.59
Target stock price (averages with growth) $26.63
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $18.62
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $25.46

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=dar

Darling International Inc. (Darling) is a provider of rendering, cooking oil and bakery waste recycling and recovery solutions. It collects and recycles animal by-products, bakery residual and used cooking oil from poultry and meat processors, commercial bakeries, grocery stores, butcher shops, and food service establishments and provides grease trap cleaning services to many of the same establishments. It sells these products domestically and internationally, primarily to producers of animal feed, pet food, fertilizer, bio-fuels and other consumer and industrial ingredients, including oleo-chemicals, soaps and leather goods for use as ingredients in their products or for further processing. On June 8, 2012, it completed its acquisition of substantially all of the assets of RVO BioPur, LLC (BioPur). In September 2012, it purchased of a river terminal and storage facility located on the Mississippi River in Muscatine, Iowa from CK Processing Company and River Terminal Corporation.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

You need to have an account at a stockbroker (broker) in order to buy or sell stock. The two prominent exchanges, NYSE and NASDAQ, are like private clubs whose members only buy and sell to each other. The members of these clubs will buy and sell your stocks for you.

You can get a list of stockbrokers on the web by going to http://www.Confident-Investor.com/brokerlist. You will need to be a registered book owner to access this page but you can register easily and for free by following the instructions on the site.

You can set up an account at a broker fairly simply. Each broker will probably ask you some personal information that includes your social security number and contact information. They will also probably ask you to make a deposit into your new account for a minimum amount. Once that deposit check or transfer has cleared, you are ready to go.

Stockbrokers charge commissions or fees for transactions. These costs affect your earnings and losses. The costs are usually based on four factors: the actual transaction charge (usually a charge to buy or sell), the number of negotiated stocks, the cost of stocks you are buying/selling, and the total amount of the order.

Full-service brokerage firms usually charge the highest fees and commissions. Regional brokerage firms tend to be slightly cheaper than the national firms. Discount brokerage firms or online firms offer reduced commissions and reduced or no fees.

Paying $50 in fees to a full-service broker instead of $7 at a deep discounter can make a significant difference in your total return. If the stock price is $30 in a 100 stock transaction, you pay 1.6% of the stock price ($50 divided by $3000) to a full-service broker to purchase the stock. You will pay the same amount when you sell the stock for a total of 3.2%. A discount broker will charge you 0.4% for the round trip transaction. This means that the stock would have to appreciate to $31 just to make money with a full-service broker. The discount broker only needs the share price to increase 12 cents to break even on the trade.

Full-service brokers become acquainted with your financial situation. They may provide opinions on stocks / bonds, or offer financial research service. In many cases, a personal relationship is developed with a full-service broker. The full-service brokerage firms may offer a diversified range of financial services including estate planning, exclusive investment choices, and tax preparation assistance. In some cases, a full-service broker can offer their best clients IPO or special situation investment options.

Discount brokerage firms offer reduced commissions and, in some cases, reduced services. Brokers in a discount brokerage firm make trades for clients but may not provide the same personal service as a full-service broker. In fact, at a discount broker, personal brokers may not be specifically assigned to an investor.

The electronic trading or on-line brokers allow you to perform your trades using a computer. The on-line costs can vary from $5 to $40 for each sell or buy. Research information on companies is usually very accessible through these online services.

The goal of my book, The Confident Investor, is to teach you how to be confident in your trades. You will learn how to evaluate companies. You will also learn how to decide the right time to buy or sell shares. With this personal knowledge, there is little reason to have a relationship with a full-service broker. Instead, I suggest that you open an account at an online discount broker and save the fees and commission charges.

You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in e-book formats for Nook, Kindle, and iPad.

Company name Cummins Inc.
Stock ticker CMI
Live stock price [stckqut]CMI[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Fair
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $152.39
Target stock price (averages with growth) $180.68
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $131.42
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $145.75

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=cmi

Cummins Inc. is a diesel engine manufacturer. The Company designs, manufactures, distributes and services diesel and natural gas engines, electric power generation systems and engine-related component products, including filtration, exhaust aftertreatment, fuel systems, fuel systems, controls systems, air handling systems and electric power. The Company sells its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors and other customers worldwide. It serves its customers through a network of more than 600 company owned and independent distributor locations and more than 6,500 dealer locations in more than 190 countries and territories. It has four segments: Engine, Power Generation, Components and Distribution. In April 2011, the Company sold its exhaust business to Global Tube. In July 2012, the Company acquired the emission control assets of Hilite International in Marktheidenfeld. The Hilite assets are part of Cummins Emission Solution (CES).

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns. I am leaving this company on my Watch List since it is one of the few manufacturers on the list. Please be a bit more cautious with this company though since the performance last year was not quite what it should have been.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.