Company name Fossil Inc
Stock ticker FOSL
Live stock price [stckqut]FOSL[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good


Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good


Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $144.55
Target stock price (averages with growth) $185.72
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $134.61
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $138.5

The following company description is from Google Finance:

Fossil, Inc. a global designer, marketer and distributer company that specializes in consumer fashion accessories. The Company’s offerings include a line of men’s and women’s fashion watches and jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, sunglasses, soft accessories and clothing. Its products are distributed globally through various distribution channels, including wholesale in countries where it has a physical presence, direct to the consumer through its retail stores and commercial websites and through third-party distributors in countries where the Company do not maintain a physical presence. It operates in four different segments: the North America Wholesale segment, the Europe Wholesale segment, Asia Pacific Wholesale segment and the Direct to Consumer segment. Effective April 2, 2012, it acquired Skagen Designs, Ltd. and certain of its international affiliates. On December 31, 2012, the Company purchased substantially all of the assets of Bentrani Watches, LLC (Bentrani).


Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns. The biggest reason that the company dropped to Fair is due to its lack of growth of P/E and that is less concerning to me than other indicators. I am leaving the company on my Watch List.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

It is important for any investor to be diversified in a range of stocks that fall in different industries. This way you are not doubling up on your risk for a segment disruption. In order to do this, you should probably have at least 20 stocks in your portfolio once it is at least partially developed.

I need to stress that last part a bit more, full diversification is not necessarily possible until your Confident Investor portfolio is at least partially developed.

As I explained in an earlier article, you should break up your portfolio money into 10 or more allotments. This means that you can have 10 different stocks fully invested at any given time.

At any given time, there are about 50 companies that are on my Watch List on this site. Not all of these companies are going to be experiencing upward momentum (a bull market) at the same time. Perhaps only a fraction of them are moving up, these are the companies that you will invest in using my Grow on Other People’s Money (GOPM) methodology.

As an example, lets assume that 7 companies are increasing in value at this time and you have divided your portfolio into 15 allotments of $6,000 each. That means you will have $42,000 invested (7 x $6,000). You will also have $48,000 sitting in cash waiting for another company to start increasing in price. As time progresses, one of these 7 companies starts to drop in price and the indicators I describe in my book, The Confident Investor, tell you to sell.  You sell enough stock in that company to recoup your original $6,000 and are left with 24 shares of the stock that are free and have not cost you any money.

Over time you will find that you have invested in many of the 50 companies on the Watch List. You will still have your $90,000 in cash but you will also have differing amounts of free stock in each company. This stock was paid for with Other People’s Money and it is now growing in your account.  In some companies you may only have 1 or 2 shares but in other companies you may have hundreds of free shares. At this point, you will find that you are quite diversified since you have free shares in several dozen companies.