By:
On:
In: Commentary
With: 0 Comments

It is an unfortunate reality for workers of the 21st century that life is different from their parents. Your parents were undoubtedly hard workers and worried about their future, so I do not want to dismiss their efforts. However, for many workers today, planning for retirement requires more work than our parents put into the subject.

I am likely to make a few generalizations in this document. Your individual situation may vary, but in general, the young workers of the 1960s and 1970s had a few benefits that are not enjoyed today.

  • Many companies then had pensions. Today, few companies have pensions and only offer 401K savings plans that are moderately contributed to by the employer
  • Social Security was a fairly safe security net. The workers of the 60s and 70s had the population numbers working for them so Social Security was going to be funded for much of their lives. The prudent worker of 30 years ago realized Social Security would not cover 100% of future living expenses, but there was little fear of it being defunded.
  • Life expectancy was not as long. It was fairly uncommon to have a relative past 80 and definitely 90 years of age – the norm was closer to mid-70s. Therefore, financial planning really only need to cover until about 75-80 years of age. Now, many people know 90 year old relatives or friends that are incredibly active. The assumption is that you will live to be 90.

Life today is different. Today we rarely have pensions from our employers. Social Security is not a sure bet that it has a viable future. In addition, we are living longer.

I don’t want to seem like life was better in the past than it is today. I’m actually fairly optimistic about the prospects of living in the second decade of the 21st century. I believe that we have more opportunities today than our predecessors. I also believe that we live more comfortably than previous generations of Americans.

Unfortunately, we do need to spend more time worrying about our financial future than our parents ever had to do. This concern and planning is not a big drag on our lives, but it is an important element of living in today’s economy.

This is why I wrote my book “The Confident Investor.” Today’s workers need to focus on developing the portfolio of investments that will allow them to live comfortably until they are 90-100 years old. You cannot expect Social Security or your employers pension to keep you comfortable after you stop working.

Building a portfolio that will make you financially comfortable is not extremely difficult. It does require some effort on your part. It’s also requires you to pre-plan how you spend and save your money. It is critical that you are not like the ostrich that hides its head in the sand, but instead plans ahead for retirement when you are not working.

A worker in today’s economy needs to save diligently and invest aggressively so that you can retire in luxury. This site, combined with my book “The Confident Investor,” will help you invest in the stock market to attain a comfortable and luxurious retirement.

As always, you are welcome to correspond with me personally on this site, on Twitter, or on Facebook. I look forward to helping you develop a portfolio that exceeds the retirement of your parents and your grandparents. Your life and your future are in your control. Now is the time to start the process of preparing for the rest of your life.

You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in e-book formats for Nook, Kindle, and iPad.

By:
On:
In: Good company, Stock analysis
Tagged:
With: 0 Comments

Company name Nordson Corporation
Stock ticker NDSN
Live stock price [stckqut]NDSN[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $114.48
Target stock price (averages with growth) $141.84
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $97.79
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $105.6

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ndsn

Nordson Corporation is a manufacturer of equipment used for precision material dispensing, testing and inspection, surface preparation and curing. Its technology-based systems can be found in production facilities globally. It serves diverse markets, including the appliance, automotive, bookbinding, container, converting, electronics, food and beverage, furniture, life sciences and medical, light emitting diodes (LED), metal finishing, nonwoven, packaging, semiconductor and solar energy industries. Its products are marketed through a network of direct operations in more than 30 countries. The Company operates in three segments: Adhesive Dispensing Systems, Advanced Technology Systems and Industrial Coating Systems. In September 2013, Nordson Corporation completed the acquisition of Munster, Germany based Kreyenborg Group’s Kreyenborg GmbH and BKG Bruckmann & Kreyenborg Granuliertechnik GmbH companies.

 

Confident Investor comments: Few companies can deliver so well as to put this much green into the scorecard. At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $74.07

Growth: 0.18

Current EPS (TTM): $3.54

P/E: 21

Future EPS Calc: $8.09

Future Stock Price Calc: $170.07

Target stock price: $105.6

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

By:
On:
In: Poor company, Stock analysis
Tagged:
With: 0 Comments

Company name Endo Health Solutions Inc
Stock ticker ENDP
Live stock price [stckqut]ENDP[/stckqut]
Confident Investor Rating Poor

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=endp

Endo Health Solutions Inc. is a specialty healthcare solutions company focused on branded and generic pharmaceuticals, devices and services. The Company has a portfolio of branded pharmaceuticals that includes brands, such as Lidoderm , Opana ER, Voltaren Gel, Percocet , Frova , Supprelin LA, Vantas , Valstar and Fortesta Gel. The Company operates in four segments: Endo Pharmaceuticals, Qualitest, AMS, and HealthTronics. Through the Company’s HealthTronics segment, the Company provides lithotripsy services, prostate treatment services, anatomical pathology services, medical products manufacturing, sales and maintenance, and information technology solutions. Its products in the Qualitest portfolio includes Endocet, Morphine Sulfate ER, and Hydrocodone. Its AMS products include AMS 700 MS, AMS 800 artificial urinary sphincter, GreenLight XPS laser system, and Monarc subfascial hammock. Its Endo Pharmaceuticals products include Lidoderm, Opana ER, Voltaren Gel, and Percocet.
Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock. It is not possible to confidently invest in a company that is not currently profitable.
If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

By:
On:
In: Fair company, Stock analysis
Tagged:
With: 0 Comments

Company name Chico’s FAS, Inc.
Stock ticker CHS
Live stock price [stckqut]CHS[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Fair
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $24.25
Target stock price (averages with growth) $36.37
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $31.28
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $22.22

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=chs

Chico’s FAS, Inc. is a specialty retailer of private branded, casual-to-dressy clothing, intimates, complementary accessories, and other non-clothing gift items under the Chico’s, White House / Black Market (WH/BM) and Soma Intimates (Soma) brand names. The Chico’s brand primarily sells designed, private branded clothing focusing on women 30 and over. The WHBM brand offers feminine and alternative to designer fashion selling fashionable and clothing and accessory items, primarily in black and white and related shades with seasonal color splashes. The Soma brand sells designed private branded lingerie, loungewear and beauty products women who are 35 years old and over. It also produces catalogs and operates e-commerce Websites and a call center that sell its merchandise nationally and internationally. The Boston Proper brand s an online and catalog based retailer of women’s high end apparel and accessories. On September 19, 2011, it acquired Boston Proper, Inc. (Boston Proper).

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $16.38

Growth: 0.17

Current EPS (TTM): $1.02

P/E: 16

Future EPS Calc: $2.23

Future Stock Price Calc: $35.78

Target stock price: $22.21

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

By:
On:
In: Commentary
With: 0 Comments

Many investors claim they don’t subscribe to any tenet of technical analysis. Frankly, I have rarely seen a successful investor that doesn’t do a bit of simple technical analysis.

If technical analysis is so terrible, why do so many investors pay attention to the 52 week high or low? Even this thought pattern is a basic form of technical analysis. Basically, you are making a decision based on a past action of the stock. A better name for technical analysis would be chart analysis since it is the use of charts to make investment decisions. It is trying to interpret market psychology based on the past actions of that market. At its core, technical analysis is simply a method of determining if a stock is worth buying or selling.

Technical analysis is simply the study of market generated data. This includes price levels that have served as past turning points, the amounts of stock being bought and sold each day (volume), and the rate of change of price movements (momentum) over a given span of time.

Fundamental analysis, which seeks to uncover the true value of a stock, depends on future sales, earnings, and cost estimates of a company. Often, these numbers change as outside influences, such as the overall economy or the company’s competitive landscape, change. The basics of technical analysis i.e. the price of shares and the volume being sold, never change.

Technical analysis isn’t magic. It won’t guarantee a great buy or a great sell. But chart analysis can help make a decision to buy, sell or hold. These decisions are based on the probabilities of the actions of others. If a pattern on the chart appears, a chart watcher can react to that pattern. It does not work every time, but past performance does give us an idea of what will happen so we can do something about it.