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I recently read an article on CNN Money advising investors to invest in consumer product goods (CPG) companies. The logic was that CPG companies, as a group, have several features that should be appealing to investors:

  • Predictability – these companies can predict how much of a product can be sold in the short-term so they control pricing and inventory well.
  • Dependability – these companies are not going to see massive drops in revenue since consumer purchase their products regardless of the economic climate.
  • Pricing power – due to their brand loyalty, these companies can put forward regular price increases with little negative market reaction.
  • Global reach – while most of CPG companies get the bulk of their revenue in the western world, many have made significant investments in emerging markets.

The problem with the article is that the cited companies were fair at best, and some were poor. Instead of the CPG companies in the article, I suggest that you look at good companies such as Coach [stckqut]coh[/stckqut], Decker [stckqut]deck[/stckqut], Boston Beer [stckqut]sam[/stckqut], or Fossil [stckqut]fosl[/stckqut] (all of these companies are currently on my Watch List). If you want to own one or two of the companies in the article, P&G [stckqut]pg[/stckqut] (the stock symbol is not PR as cited in the article) or Unilever [stckqut]ul[/stckqut] are decent candidates – both companies are very well run.

Settling for companies that are familiar to you and you see on the grocery shelves may not be a good investment strategy.  I suggest that you focus your portfolio on companies that have more upside potential but are still very well run.

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Company name The Boston Beer Company, Inc.
Stock ticker SAM
Live stock price [stckqut]SAM[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good
MANAGEMENT EXECUTION
Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good
ANALYSIS
Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $150.42
Target stock price (averages with growth) $148.23
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $115.82
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $119.79

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=sam

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (Boston Beer) is a craft brewer in the United States. Boston Beer produces malt beverages and hard cider products at the Company-owned breweries and under contract arrangements at other brewery locations. The Company-owned breweries are located in Boston, Massachusetts (the Boston Brewery), Cincinnati, Ohio (the Cincinnati Brewery) and Breinigsville, Pennsylvania (the Pennsylvania Brewery). During the fiscal year ended December 25, 2010 (fiscal 2010), Boston Beer sold approximately approximately 2.3 million barrels of its products (core brands) and brewed or packaged approximately 13,000 barrels under contract (non-core brands) for third-parties. During fiscal 2010, the Company sold over 20 beers under the Samuel Adams or the Sam Adams brand names, eight flavored malt beverage products under the Twisted Tea brand name, and one hard cider product under the HardCore brand name.

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

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Several times a year, a Confident Investor must reevaluate the companies in the portfolio. Keeping your money in a stock that no longer qualifies as a “Good” company can end up hurting your investment performance a great deal.  Also, there are a lot of Good Companies so losing the worst of the best is not going to impact the ability to have a balanced portfolio.  Over the coming days, this site will evaluate each stock on the Watch List.

 

Company name The Boston Beer Company, Inc.
Stock ticker SAM
Live stock price [stckqut]SAM[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good
MANAGEMENT EXECUTION
Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Fair
EBIT growth Good
ANALYSIS
Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $142.68
Target stock price (averages with growth) $134.94
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $100.53
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $114.62

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=sam The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (Boston Beer) is a craft brewer and an independently owned brewer overall in the United States. The Company produces malt beverages and hard cider products at company-owned breweries and under contract arrangements at other brewery locations. The company-owned breweries are located in Boston, Massachusetts (the Boston Brewery), Cincinnati, Ohio (the Cincinnati Brewery) and Breinigsville, Pennsylvania (the Pennsylvania Brewery). During the fiscal year ended December 26, 2009 (fiscal 2009), Boston Beer sold approximately two million barrels of its products (core brands) and brewed or packaged approximately 200,000 barrels under contract (non-core products) for third parties. During fiscal 2009, the Company sold over 20 beers under the Samuel Adams or the Sam Adams brand names, eight flavored malt beverage products under the Twisted Tea brand name, and one hard cider product under the HardCore brand name.

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

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Company name The Boston Beer Company, Inc.
Stock ticker SAM
Live stock price [stckqut]SAM[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good
MANAGEMENT EXECUTION
Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good
ANALYSIS
Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $106.93
Target stock price (averages with growth) $103.44
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $79.16
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $70.19

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.