Tech investors are a discerning bunch these days—a harsh reality that is pressuring Apple Inc. [stckqut]AAPL[/stckqut] more than it deserves.

In this yield-starved environment, stock investors are attracted to steady income. This would benefit Apple, except that like other former highfliers, it has been tossed out by investors. The iPhone giant’s shares have slid 6% this year and 21% over the past 12 months. While some of that is justified as iPhone sales have slowed, the selloff also looks overdone.

Much of the bearish thesis is due to weakening iPhone sales, which account for more than half of revenue. The iPad isn’t selling as well as it used to and the jury is out on the Apple Watch. Tech investors are allergic to anemic growth, which explains why the tech-heavy Nasdaq has lagged behind the Dow industrials and S&P 500.

Still, Apple has been punished more than enough. The iPhone slump appears priced in. And while the next iPhone, expected later this year, likely won’t be a significant upgrade, there is optimism that sales growth will soon bounce back. Analysts forecast iPhone unit sales will rise 5% for fiscal 2017, which ends next September.

Apple is the sort of stock that investors love these days. It plans to spend $250 billion on dividends and buybacks by March 2018, which would boost earnings per share and yield. Already, Apple’s 2.3% dividend yield is well above the 10-year Treasury yield.

Apple remains wildly profitable, too. Its $10.52 billion profit in the March quarter easily surpassed combined profits of Alphabet Inc. [stckqut]GOOGL[/stckqut], Amazon.com Inc. [stckqut]AMZN[/stckqut] and Facebook Inc. [stckqut]FB[/stckqut]

Source: Apple Is Ripe for a Rally

Company name Lululemon Athletica inc.
Stock ticker LULU
Live stock price [stckqut]LULU[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $102.16
Target stock price (averages with growth) $105.05
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $51.11
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $101.59

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=lulu

Lululemon Athletica Inc. is a designer, distributor and retailer of technical athletic apparel. The Company’s segments include Company-operated stores, Direct to consumer and Other. The Company offers a line of apparel and accessories for women, men and female youth. Its apparel assortment includes items, such as pants, shorts, tops and jackets designed for healthy lifestyle activities and athletic pursuits, such as yoga, running, other sweaty pursuits and athletic wear for female youth. The Company conducts its business through two channels: Company-operated stores and direct to consumer. It operates approximately 360 Company-operated stores located in the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Hong Kong, Germany and Puerto Rico. Its direct to consumer segment includes lululemon and ivivva e-commerce Websites, www.lululemon.com and www.ivivva.com, and other country and region specific Websites.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Lululemon Athletica inc. as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Lululemon Athletica inc. calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $77.38
  • Growth: 0.16
  • Current EPS (TTM): $1.9
  • P/E: 41
  • Future EPS Calc: $3.99
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $163.61
  • Target stock price: $101.59

[/s2If]
I hope that this makes you a Confident Investor.

Company name JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Stock ticker JPM
Live stock price [stckqut]JPM[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Poor
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $56.06
Target stock price (averages with growth) $45.68
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $26.58
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $56.71

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=jpm

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a financial holding company. The Company is engaged in investment banking, financial services. It operates in four segments, as well as a Corporate segment. Its segments are Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Bank, Commercial Banking and Asset Management. The Consumer & Community Banking segment serves consumers and businesses through personal service at bank branches and through automatic teller machines, online, mobile and telephone banking. The Corporate & Investment Bank segment, comprising Banking and Markets & Investor Services, offers investment banking, market-making, prime brokerage, and treasury and securities products and services to corporations, investors, financial institutions, and government and municipal entities. The Commercial Banking segment provides financial solutions, including lending, treasury services, investment banking and asset management. The Asset Management segment comprises investment and wealth management.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in JPMorgan Chase & Co. I am removing JPMorgan from my Watch List.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of JPMorgan Chase & Co. calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

  • Stock price at the time of the calculation: $64.1
  • Growth: 0.07
  • Current EPS (TTM): $5.92
  • P/E: 11
  • Future EPS Calc: $8.3
  • Future Stock Price Calc: $91.33
  • Target stock price: $56.71

[/s2If]
I hope that this makes you a Confident Investor.