Company name Akamai Technologies, Inc.
Stock ticker AKAM
Live stock price [stckqut]AKAM[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $54.63
Target stock price (averages with growth) $70.1
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $51.73
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $48.79

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=akam

Akamai Technologies, Inc. (Akamai) provides content delivery and cloud infrastructure services for the delivery of content and applications over the Internet. The Company’s solutions range from delivery of conventional content on Websites, to tools that support the delivery and operation of cloud-based applications, to live and on-demand streaming video capabilities all designed to help its customers interact with people accessing the Internet from myriad devices and locations around the world. The Company offers five solutions designed to meet the online business needs of its customers: Terra, Aqua, Sola, Kona and Aura. In December 2012, the Company acquired Verivue, Inc. In September 2012, the Company acquired FastSoft, Inc. In March 2012, the Company acquired Cotendo, Inc. In February 2012, the Company acquired Blaze Software, Inc.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

Company name H.J. Heinz Company
Stock ticker HNZ
Live stock price [stckqut]HNZ[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Fair
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Poor
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Poor

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Poor
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $62.03
Target stock price (averages with growth) $65.45
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $54.43
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $59.59

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=hnz

H. J. Heinz Company together with its subsidiaries is engaged in manufacturing and marketing a range of food products throughout the world. The Company’s principal products include ketchup, condiments and sauces, frozen food, soups, beans and pasta meals, infant nutrition and other food products. The Company’s products are manufactured and packaged to provide safe, wholesome foods for consumers, as well as foodservice and institutional customers. The Company manufactures and contracts for the manufacture of its products from a variety of raw food materials. The Company operates in five segments: North American Consumer Products, Europe, Asia/Pacific, U.S. Foodservice and Rest of World. In April 1, 2011, the Company acquired 80% stake in Coniexpress S.A. Industrias Alimenticias. In November 2, 2010, the Company acquired Foodstar Holding Pte (Foodstar).During the year ended December 31, 2010, the Company sold its Appetizers And, Inc. frozen hors d’oeuvres business.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I do not think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in this stock.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

Throughout this site and on my book, The Confident Investor, I encourage investors to have a balanced portfolio of stocks and index funds.  I have discussed mutual funds before but I need to discuss the reason for index funds, my preferred pooled investment vehicle.

First, let’s talk about what indexes are and why they exist. Most people recognize that Charles Dow published the first workable index in his newsletter Customer’s Afternoon Letter and then later in the Wall Street Journal. His average was eventually called the Dow Jones Industrial Average (often shortened to Dow, Dow Average or DJIA) and is the most widely quoted number regarding the movement of the US stock market.

A stock market index is a basket of securities designed to track market changes. The most widely followed US stock market indexes, along with the DJIA, are the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite. Important international stock market indexes are the Nikkei 225 (Japan), FTSE 100 (UK) and Hang Seng (Hong Kong).

Each stock market index has its own way to combine the changes in index components. The Dow Jones, for example, is a price-weighted stock market index where an increase of $1 in the stock of a $300B company produces the same change as an increase of $1 in the stock of a $30M company stock. Most stock market indexes use capitalization-weighted adjustments to account for the differences in company size.

An index fund is an investment framework that tries to mimic the movements of a particular index. The fund is usually structured as a mutual fund or an exchange-traded fund (ETF). An index fund is created to hold all of the securities in the index or a representative set designed to mimic the entire index. Many index funds rely on computer models with little human input in the decision as to which securities to purchase. This is a form of passive management. The absence of active management usually provides the benefit of lower fees and lower taxes in taxable accounts.

EXAMPLE: An S&P 500 Index Fund takes all the stocks in the S&P 500 and buys enough shares in each company to represent the dollar value that each company represents as a percentage of that market. So, if the Acme Company represented 2% of the combined value of all the S&P 500 companies, then an S&P 500 Index Fund would have 2% of its dollar value in Acme stock.

Index funds frequently outperform and have lower fees than managed funds. Index funds are often a better investment alternative. I encourage you not to have too much of your portfolio in managed funds but instead focus on index funds.

It is easy to track the results of an index. If the S&P 500 went up 1.5% over a one week period, your S&P 500 Index Fund did too. The same would be true if it went down. Index funds can be part of a balanced stress-free portfolio. You can use them to buy a comprehensive “market” position.

The problem with index funds is that they only perform as well as the market. In any trading day, there are stocks that go up or down. This is the same over the period of a week, month, several months or even years. While an index fund is easy, it is not necessarily advantageous for your entire portfolio. You are, by definition, only doing “average” with your hard-earned money.

Also, the increase over the long term in any given index is almost always reduced by inflation. If the market increases 6% or 7% in a year, you can almost bet that inflation, measured by the consumer price index (CPI), rose two or three percentage points. You need to stay ahead of the CPI in order to be able to buy more things for you and your family.

Every year, Standard & Poor’s conducts a study of actively managed mutual funds. Some of the conclusions from one of its latest studies:

  1. Over the five year market cycle from 2007 to 2011, the S&P 500 outperformed 59.4% of actively managed large cap funds. In the same period, the S&P MidCap 400 outperformed 63.5% of mid cap funds. Also, the S&P SmallCap 600 outperformed 63.1% of small cap funds. These results are similar to that of the previous five-year cycle.
  2. It is a myth that bear markets favor active management. In the two true bear markets over the last decade, most active equity managers failed to beat their benchmarks.
  3. Benchmark indices outperformed a majority of actively managed fixed income funds in all categories over a five-year horizon.

Note: You can read this yourself on the web by going to http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/spiva/en/us.

Company name Yahoo! Inc.
Stock ticker YHOO
Live stock price [stckqut]YHOO[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Poor
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $35.94
Target stock price (averages with growth) $73.79
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $80.1
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $31.35

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=yhoo

Yahoo! Inc. (Yahoo!), is a digital media company. Through the Company’s technology and insights, Yahoo! delivers digital content and experiences, across devices and globally. The Company provides online properties and services (Yahoo! Properties) to users, as well as a range of marketing services designed to reach and connect with those users on Yahoo! and through a distribution network of third-party entities (Affiliates). These Affiliates integrate its advertising offerings into their Websites or other offerings. Its offerings to users on Yahoo! Properties fall into three categories: Communications and Communities, Search and Marketplaces, and Media. Its offerings are available in more than 45 languages and in 60 countries, regions, and territories. In October 2012,the Company bought a mobile start-up company, Stamped. On December 5, 2012, it acquired a five-person video chat company. In February 2013, it acquired Snip.it. Effective March 20, 2013, it acquired Jybe Inc.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in this stock as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor.

Obviously, I do not want you to destroy your retirement! However, it is good to think about what you can do incorrectly that will hurt your financial future. By studying the mistakes, you can hopefully avoid them.

Yahoo Finance had a great article on the subject. You should jump over and read the entire article but here are the five ways that were identified.

  1. Too much debt.
  2. Spend your retirement savings on college.
  3. No emergency plan.
  4. No long-term investment strategy.
  5. No retirement plan.

All of these are bad choices. If I had to pick a 6th one it would be to trust that the US government was going to provide for you. This is not a political site and I do not want to get into political arguments. I do encourage you to be pragmatic if you are under the age of 55 and definitely under the age of 40. Assume that Social Security as it exists at this writing will likely change before you need it.