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Company name Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc.
Stock ticker ULTA
Live stock price [stckqut]ULTA[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Poor
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $106.43
Target stock price (averages with growth) $149.56
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $114.8
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $106.22

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ulta

Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. (Ulta) is a beauty retailer, which provides one-stop shopping for prestige, mass and salon products and salon services in the United States. During the year ended January 28, 2012 (fiscal 2011), the Company opened 61 new stores. It operates full-service salons in all of its stores. Its Ulta store format includes an open and modern salon area with approximately eight to 10 stations. The entire salon area is approximately 950 square feet with a concierge desk, skin treatment room, semi-private shampoo and hair color processing areas. Each salon is a full-service salon offering hair cuts, hair coloring and permanent texture, with salons also providing facials and waxing.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns. I am going to leave Ulta on my Watch List in the hopes that it improves some of its fundamentals.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $85.43

Growth: 0.15

Current EPS (TTM): $3.15

P/E: 27

Future EPS Calc: $6.33

Future Stock Price Calc: $171.06

Target stock price: $106.21

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

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Company name Under Armour Inc
Stock ticker UA
Live stock price [stckqut]UA[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Fair

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Good
Sales growth Good
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Good
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Good
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $74.3
Target stock price (averages with growth) $105.51
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $75.85
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $73.76

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ua

Under Armour, Inc. (Under Armour) is engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. The Company’s products are sold worldwide and are worn by athletes at all levels, from youth to professional, on playing fields worldwide. Most of its products are sold in North America. Internationally, Under Armour sells its products in certain countries in Europe, a third party licensee sells its products in Japan, and distributors sell the Company’s products in other foreign countries. In addition, it opened it store in China during the year ended December 31, 2012. The Company’s product offerings consist of apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. In November 2013, the Company acquired MapMyFitness.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this price and at this time, I think that a Confident Investor can confidently invest in Under Armour Inc.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Under Armour Inc calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $48.37

Growth: 0.2

Current EPS (TTM): $0.77

P/E: 62

Future EPS Calc: $1.91

Future Stock Price Calc: $118.79

Target stock price: $73.76

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

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start investing now, the water is deepThe most frequent question that I get is, “When should I start investing?” My typical answer is, “Now!” However, perhaps I should offer a bit more guidance than a simply one-word answer to help you to prepare to start investing.

In the opening of my book, “The Confident Investor”, I actually tell some people to put the book back on the shelf. These are people that are not ready to start investing any money. The people that are not ready to start investing yet are people that say the following:

  1. I cannot give 10% of my money to my fellow man simply because money is too tight and I can’t make ends meet.
  2. I cannot put 10% of my money into the bank before I pay any bills simply because I spend every dime that I make to make ends meet.
  3. I cannot save 6 months of my income into an emergency fund because I need all the money I can spare to survive.

In general, the reason that people cannot (or will not) do the above three things is because they have not prioritized their life correctly. Everyone can live on 80% of their income. If you are living in the United States or Canada (which covers 98% of those that read this site), you have more than enough wealth to live on 80% of your income. People all over the world are forced to survive on much less than you are making – they would be thrilled to live on your 80%. As an old friend of mine used to say, “If I had all of your money, I wouldn’t need mine.”

There are a few more things to consider before you start investing

You have realistic expectations about investing
It’s quite sad how many people I come across with insanely unrealistic expectations about investing. In fact, it appears this describes a sizable minority of the general public. Why else would the “earn 20% per month investing in xyz” scams be so prevalent? Somebody must be buying into those pitches. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. You aren’t going to earn more than 20% per year with a properly diversified portfolio. You’re just not. If you’re expecting more than that, you probably shouldn’t be investing because odds are good you’ll fall victim to a scam and lose all your money eventually.

You understand the basics
I don’t care if you aren’t interested in investing. You probably aren’t all that interested in brushing your teeth or flossing either, but you do it. Why? Because it’s good for you. It’s just something you have to do. It’s the same with learning about personal finance. Not being interested isn’t an excuse. There are probably a thousand good personal finance blogs on the internet (I consider mine to be among the best), tons of good books on the subject (once again, I cannot think of a better one than my own, “The Confident Investor“), and you can always watch Jim Cramer on Mad Money to get a bit more perspective. The information is out there and investing isn’t difficult. Just do it. Start investing NOW!

You can purchase my book wherever books are sold such as Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Books A Million. It is available in e-book formats for Nook, Kindle, and iPad. 

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