Panera Bread Co ($PNRA) Cautious Buy or Hold to $174 Confident Investor Rating: Fair

Company name Panera Bread Co
Stock ticker PNRA
Live stock price [stckqut]PNRA[/stckqut]
P/E compared to competitors Good

MANAGEMENT EXECUTION

Employee productivity Fair
Sales growth Fair
EPS growth Good
P/E growth Poor
EBIT growth Good

ANALYSIS

Confident Investor Rating Fair
Target stock price (TWCA growth scenario) $143.47
Target stock price (averages with growth) $216.51
Target stock price (averages with no growth) $202.39
Target stock price (manual assumptions) $162.02

The following company description is from Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=pnra

Panera Bread Company (Panera) s a national bakery-cafe concept with 1,541 Company-owned and franchise-operated bakery-cafe locations in42 states, the District of Columbia, and Ontario, Canada. Panera operates under the Panera Bread, Saint Louis Bread Co. and Paradise Bakery & Cafe trademark names. Its bakery-cafes are located in urban, suburban, strip mall, and regional mall locations. The Company operates in three business segments: Company bakery-cafe operations, franchise operations, and fresh dough and other product operations. As of December 27, 2011, its Company bakery-cafe operations segment consisted of 740 Company-owned bakery-cafes, located throughout the United States and in Ontario, Canada. On July 26, 2011, the Company purchased five Paradise Bakery & Cafe (Paradise) bakery-cafes and the related area development rights from an Indiana franchisee. On April 19, 2011, the Company purchased 25 bakery-cafes and the related area development rights from a Milwaukee franchisee.

 

Confident Investor comments: At this time, I think that a Confident Investor can cautiously invest in Panera Bread Co as long as the price is correct. Most of the fundamentals of this company are good but there are some concerns. I am going to leave Panera on my Watch List in the hopes that it will improve some of these metrics.

If you would like to understand how to evaluate companies like I do on this site, please read my book, The Confident Investor. You can review the best companies that I have found (and I probably invest my own money in most of these companies) in my Watch List.

How was this analysis of Panera Bread Co calculated?

For owners of my book, “The Confident Investor” I offer the following analysis (you must be logged in to this site as a book owner in order to see the following analysis). If you have registered and cannot see the balance of this article, make sure you are logged in and refresh your browser.
[s2If current_user_can(s2member_level1)]
In order to assist you in using the techniques of this book, the values that I used when calculating the Manual pricing above were:

Stock price at the time of the calculation: $153.5

Growth: 0.12

Current EPS (TTM): $6.73

P/E: 22

Future EPS Calc: $11.86

Future Stock Price Calc: $260.93

Target stock price: $162.01

I hope that this makes you a better investor. [/s2If]

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